Monetary policy report 4/18
with financial stability assessment
Chart 1.1a Key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c CPI with fan chart
Chart 1.1d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.3 Oil price
Chart 1.4 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 1.5 GDP for mainland Norway and Regional Network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.7 CPI and CPI-ATE
Chart 1.8 Interest rates
Chart 1.9 I44
Chart 1.10 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.11 Petroleum investment
Chart 1.12 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 1.13 Wages
Chart 2.1 Global PMI
Chart 2.2 Money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.3 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.6 Headline and core inflation in selected countries
Chart 2.7 Wage growth and estimated output gap in selected countries
Chart 2.8 Indicator of international inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods with compositional effect (IPC)
Chart 2.9 Business investment and planned investment in the US
Chart 2.10 Unemployment and wage growth in the euro area
Chart 2.11 Investments and planned investments in the UK
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 OPEC surplus production capacity
Chart 3.1 GDP Mainland Norway
Chart 3.2 Production growth by sector according to Regional Network
Chart 3.3 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.4 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.5 Regional network and consumption
Chart 3.6 House prices
Chart 3.7 New home sales
Chart 3.8 Housing investment and house prices
Chart 3.9 Corporate investment as a share of mainland Norway GDP
Chart 3.10 Investment by investment sort
Chart 3.11 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 3.12 Export-oriented output according to the Regional Network
Chart 3.13 Exports from mainland Norway
Chart 3.14 Imports
Chart 3.15 Employment
Chart 3.16 Job vacancies
Chart 3.17 Expected employment
Chart 3.18 Registered unemployment and unemployment benefit recipients
Chart 3.19 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 3.20 Labour force
Chart 3.21 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by Regional Network
Chart 3.22 Model estimated output gap
Chart 3.23 Productivity growth in Norway and for trading partners
Chart 3.24 CPI, CPI-ATE and energy prices
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE by supplier sector
Chart 3.26 CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 3.27 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations
Chart 3.28 Labour share for mainland Norway
Chart 3.29 Wage growth in Norway and for main trading partners
Chart 3.30 Domestically produced goods and services in CPI-ATE
Chart 3.31 CPI and CPI-ATE
Chart 3.32 Energy prices in CPI
Chart 3.33 Indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.34 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.35 Interest rates
Chart 3.36 Norwegian three-month money market premium
Chart 3.37 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 3.38 Three-, five- and ten-year swap rates
Chart 3.39 Cross-check model for the krone exchange rate
Chart 3.40 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 3.41 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.42 Public sector demand
Chart 3.43 Petroleum investment
Chart 3.44 Field development projects
Chart 3.45 Retail sector turnover
Chart 3.46 Households' direct imports of goods and services
Chart 3.47 Internet users who have bought goods or services over the internet in the past three months
Chart 3.48 Internet users who have bought goods and services over the internet
Chart 3.49 How is capasity utilisation in your business compared with what you would consider normal?
Chart 3.50 To what degree do you experience difficulties in recruiting or retaining different types of labour?
Chart 3.51 How has recruitment of different types of labour changes over the past 12 months?
Chart 3.52 What does your business do when faced with a shortage of labour?
Chart 3.53 Does your business expect to recruit more or fewer employees from other European countries in six months?
Chart 3.54 How has recruitment of labour from other European countries changed over the past two years?
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 GDP for mainland Norway and employment.
Chart 4.3 Three-month money market rate and real interest rates
Chart 4.4a CPI-ATE
Chart 4.4b Estimated output gap
Chart 4.5a Policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.5b Estimated output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.5c CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.5d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.6 Policy rate 
Chart 4.7 Real interest rate
Chart 4.8 Factors behind the change in the policy rate since MPR 3/18
Chart 4.9 Three-month money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 5.1 Risk premiums non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.2 International bank and securities debt to non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.3 Countercyclical capital buffer rates in selected countries and Norwegian banks' exposure in these countries
Chart 5.4 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.5 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.6 Credit to households and non­financial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.7 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.8 Share of new mortgages breaching the requirements in the residental mortgage lending regulation
Chart 5.9 Credit from selected funding sources to non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.10 Net effect of a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates as a share of operating revenue
Chart 5.11 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.12 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.13 Change in house prices
Chart 5.14 Turnover of existing homes
Chart 5.15 Unsold existing homes
Chart 5.16 Housing starts and household growth
Chart 5.17 Yields for prime office space in Oslo
Chart 5.18 Return on equity for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.19 Decomposed change in the profits of large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.20 Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio and the CET1 requirement under Pillar 1 and Pillar 2
Chart 5.21 Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio with and without transitional rule
Chart 5.22 Credit to Norwegian enterprises from different banking groups
Chart 5.23 Credit indicator
Chart 5.24 Credit gap
Chart 5.25 Buffer guide
Chart 5.26 Housing starts and change in number of households
Chart 5.27 Contribution to total population growth by municipalities degree of urbanisation
Chart 5.28 Construction surplus by degree of urbanisation
Chart 5.29 Unoccupied dwellings by municipalities' degree of urbanisation