Norges Bank

2020 Central Bank Macro Modelling Workshop

Hosted by: Norges Bank

Program:

Tuesday 6 October

Wednesday 7 October

Thursday 8 October

Poster sessions

All times in Oslo local time (GMT+2); all sessions via Zoom
Present: 25 minutes, open discussion moderated by chair: 5 minutes

Tuesday 6 October

1:45-2:00 pm
Welcome Address: Ida Wolden Bache, Deputy Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee

Parallel Session 1A: Monetary Policy Transmission

Session Chair: Fabio Canova (BI Norwegian Business School)

 2:00-2:30 pm   Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area 
Jiri Slacalek (ECB), Oreste Tristani (ECB), Giovanni L. Violante (Princeton)

2:30-3:00 pm   Does One (Unconventional) Size Fit All? Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Euro Area Economies (pdf)
Maria Sole Pagliari (Banque de France)

3:00-3:30 pm The Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Microeconometric Evidence 
Niklas Amberg (Sveriges Riksbank), Mathias Klein (Sveriges Riksbank)

Parallel Session 1B: Corporate Investment

Session Chair: Yueran Ma (Chicago Booth)

2:00-2:30 pm   A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts
Yueran Ma (Chicago Booth), Tiziano Ropele (Bank of Italy), David Sraer (Haas School of Business), David Thesmar (MIT Sloan School of Management)

2:30-3:00 pm Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
Germán Gutiérrez (NYU), Callum Jones (IMF), Thomas Philippon (NYU, CEPR and NBER)

3:00-3:30 pm Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro Level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation
Xing Guo (Bank of Canada)

Keynote Speech I

Session Chair: Galo Nuño (Bank of Spain)

3:30 to 4:30 pm The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for  the U.S. 
Greg Kaplan (Chicago), Benjamin Moll (LSE), Gianluca Violante (Princeton)

4:30 to 5:30 pm   Coffee Break and Poster Session I

Parallel Session 2A: Prices

Session Chair: Oleksiy Kryvtsov (Bank of Canada)

5:30-6:00 pm  The Extensive and Intensive Margin of Price Adjustment to Cost Shocks: Evidence from Danish Multiproduct Firms
Luca Dedola (ECB), Mark Strøm Kristoffersen (FHO), Gabriel Züllig (Danmarks Nationalbank and University of Copenhagen)

6:00-6:30 pm   The Analytics of Monetary Shocks with Generalized Hazard Functions 
Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago and NBER), Francesco Lippi (LUISS and EIEF), Aleksei Oskolkov (University of Chicago)

6:30-7:00 pm  Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices
Henning Weber (Deutsche Bundesbank), Klaus Adam (Oxford and CEPR)

Parallel Session 2B: Expectations and Predictions

Session Chair: Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank)

5:30-6:00 pm  Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap
Elena Afanasyeva (FED Board)

6:00-6:30 pm  Structure and Workings of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics and Finance
Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank), Jamie Cross (BI Norwegian Business School), Herman K. van Dijk (Erasmus University, Norges Bank and Tinbergen), Lennart Hoogerheide (VU University Amsterdam)

6:30-7:00 pm  The Factor Structure of Disagreement
Edward Herbst (FED Board) Fabian Winkler (FED Board)

Wednesday 7 October

Parallel Session 3A: Household Debt

Session Chair: Matthias Paustian (FED Board)

2:00-2:30 pm   Housing Tenure and Household Debt: Life-Cycle Dynamics during a Boom and Bust
Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain), Julio Gálvez (Bank of Spain), Myroslav Pidkuyko (Bank of Spain)

2:30-3:00 pm  Tighter Credit and Consumer Bankruptcy Insurance
Antonio Antunes (Banco de Portugal), Tiago Cavalcanti (Cambridge), Caterina Mendicino  (ECB), Marcel Peru (Brown), Anne Villamilk (Iowa)

3:00-3:30 pm   Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance, Francesco Ferrante (FED Board) Matthias Paustian (FED Board)

Parallel Session 3B: Policy Implications of Micro Level Data

Session Chair: Marcelo Ochoa (FED Board)

2:00-2:30 pm   The (Unobservable) Value of Central Bank's Refinancing Operations 
Ugo Albertazzi (ECB), Lorenzo Burlon (ECB), Tomas Jankauska (Tilburg), Nicola Pavanini (Tilburg)

2:30-3:00 pm Dealer Balance Sheets and Bidding Behavior in the UK QE Reverse Auctions
Lena Boneva (Bank of England) Jakub Kastl (Princeton, NBER and CEPR) Filip Zikes (FED Board)

3:00-3:30 pm Big G*
Lydia Cox (Harvard), Gernot J. Müller (Tübingen and CEPR), Ernesto Pasten (Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse, Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis), Michael Weber (Chicago Booth and NBER)

Keynote Speech II

Session Chair: Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank))

3:30 - 4:30pm   Job Search Behavior among the Employed and Non-Employed   R. Jason Faberman (FRB Chicago), Andreas I. Mueller (UT Austin, NBER, CEPR and IZA), Ayşegül Sahin (UT Austin), Giorgio Topa (FRB New York and IZA)

4:30 -  5:30 pm   Coffee Break and Poster Session II

Plenary Session

Session Chair: Kjetil Storesletten (University of Oslo)

5:30-6:00 pm   In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis
Xavier Gabaix (Harvard) and Ralph S.J. Koijen (Chicago Booth)

6:00-6:30 pm   Estimating HANK: Macro Time Series and Micro Moments
Sushant Acharya (FRB New York), Michael Cai (FRB New York), Marco Del Negro (FRB New York), Keshav Dogra (FRB New York), Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati (MIT)

6:30-7:00 pm   On the Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy With Heterogeneous Agents
Patrick J. Kehoe (Stanford and FRB Minneapolis), Virgiliu Midrigan (NYU), Elena Pastorino    (Hoover Institution, Stanford and FRB Minneapolis), Sergio Salgado (Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania )

Thursday 8 October

Parallel Session 4A: Inequality

Session Chair: Makoto Nakajima (FRB Philadelphia)

2:00-2:30 pm  Job Polarization, Skill Mismatch and the Great Recession
Riccardo Zago (Banque de France)

2:30-3:00 pm  Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy
Davide Melcangi (FRB New York), Vincent Sterk (UCL)

3:00-3:30 pm  Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Benjamin Pugsley (Notre Dame), Hannah Rubinton (Princeton)

Parallel Session 4B: Policy Design

Session Chair: Federico Ravenna (Danmarks Nationalbank)

2:00-2:30 pm  Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?
Jean-Paul L'Huillier (Brandeis University) and Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University)

2:30-3:00 pm   Optimal Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Firms
Beatriz Gonzalez (Bank of Spain), Galo Nuño (Bank of Spain), Dominik Thaler (Bank of Spain)

3:00-3:30 pm  Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
Christopher D. Carroll (Johns Hopkins), Edmund Crawley (FED Board), Jiri Slacalek (ECB), Matthew N. White (University of Delaware)

3:30-4:30 pm   Coffee Break and Poster Session III

Parallel Session 5A: Fiscal Policy

Session Chair: Sarah Zubairy (Texas A&M)

4:30-5:00 pm  The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes
Axelle Ferriere (Paris School of Economics), Gaston Navarro (FED Board)

5:00-5:30 pm   Government Spending Multiplier in the Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model
Paweł Kopiec (Narodowy Bank Polski)

5:30-6:00 pm  Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)distribution
Cristiano Cantore (Bank of England) and Lukas B Freund (Cambridge)

Parallel Session 5B: International Macro

Session Chair: Michael Devereux (University of British Columbia)

4:30-5:00 pm   Financial Frictions and the Re-distributive Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Francesco Ferrante, Nils Gornemann (FED Board)

5:00-5:30 pm   Offshoring and Inflation
Diego Comin (Dartmouth College and NBER), Robert C. Johnson (Notre Dame and NBER)

5:30-6:00 pm   Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union
Serdar Kabaca (Bank of Canada), Kostas Mavromatis (De Nederlandsche Bank), Renske  Maas (De Nederlandsche Bank), Romanos Priftis (Bank of Canada) 

6:00pm-6:15pm Closing Remarks by Douglas Laxton (NOVA and Saddle Point Research)

Poster sessions

Poster Session I: Tuesday 6 October, 4:30-5:30 pm

Monetary Policy, Firm Exit and Productivity
Benny Hartwig (Goethe University Frankfurt, Deutsche Bundesbank), Philipp Lieberknecht (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Slides (pdf)

Lower-for-longer under Endogenous Technology Growth
Michaela Schmöller (Bank of Finland), Martin Spitzer (ECB)
Slides (pdf)

Inflation Expectations, Interest Rates, and Consumption Behavior
Ricardo Nunes (University of Surrey), Donghyun Park (University of Surrey)
Slides (pdf)

Who Gets Jobs Matters: Monetary Policy and the Labour Market
Uroš Herman (GSEFM, Goethe), Matija Lozej (Central Bank of Ireland)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Heterogeneity in Corporate Debt Structures and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Fédéric Holm-Hadulla (ECB), Claire Thürwächter (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)
Slides (pdf)

ZLB(?) and Beyond : Real and Financial (Side) Effects of Low and Negative Interest Rates in the Euro Area
Andrejs Zlobins (Bank of Latvia)
Slides (pdf)

Optimal Monetary Policy with the Risk-Taking Channel
Angela Abbate (Swiss National Bank), Dominik Thaler (Bank of Spain)
Slides (pdf)

Poster Session II: Wednesday 7 October, 4:30-5:30 pm

Why Does Structural Change Accelerate in Recessions? The Credit Reallocation Channel
Cooper Howes (FRB Kansas City)
Slides (pdf)

The Tipping Point: Low Rates and Financial Stability
Davide Porcellacchia (ECB)
Slides (pdf)

Macro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk
Joonseok Oh (Freie Universitæt Berlin), Anna Rogantini Picco (Sveriges Riksbank)
Slides (pdf)

Micro Level Data for Macro Models: the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy
Luisa Corrado (Tor Vergata), Daniela Fantozzi (ISTAT)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Aggregate Dynamics and Microeconomic Heterogeneity: The Role of Vintage Technology
Giuseppe Fiori (FED Board), Filippo Scoccianti (Banca d’Italia)
Slides (pdf)

The Cyclicality of the Wage Offer Distribution
Junjie Guo (Wisconsin-Madison)
Slides (pdf)

Mortgage Lending Standards: Implications for Consumption Dynamics
Markus Karlman (Norwegian School of Economics) Karin Kinnerud (BI) Kasper Kragh-Sørensen (University of Oslo)
Slides (pdf)

HANK beyond FIRE
José-Elías Gallegos (IIES Stockholm)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Mortgage Supply and Capital Regulation in a Low Interest Rate Environment
Luisa Lambertini (EPFL), Yu Wu (EPFL)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Passcode: Not Required

Central Bank Communication: Information and Policy shocks
Nataliia Ostapenko (University of Tartu)
Slides (pdf)

Does the Tail Wag the Dog? Unconventional Monetary Policy and Credit Contractions
Falko Fecht (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management), Jing Zeng (University of Vienna and Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)
Slides (pdf)

 

Poster Session III: Thursday October 8th, 3:30-4:30pm

Inequality, the Risk of Secular Stagnation and the Increase in Household Debt
Ansgar Rannenberg (National Bank of Belgium)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Work Effort and the Cycle: Evidence from Survey Data
Vivien Lewis (Deutsche Bundesbank), David Van Dijcke (University of Michigan)
Slides (pdf)

International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles
Wataru Miyamoto (University of Hong Kong), Thuy Lan Nguyen (Santa Clara)
Slides (pdf)

Aggregate and Regional Implications of Bank Heterogeneity to the Bank-Lending Channel of a Monetary Policy in Monetary Union
Mai Hakamada (UCSC), Akatsuki Sukeda (LSE)
Slides (pdf)

International Reserves, Risk Tolerance, and Crisis Risk
Weining Xin (IMF)
Slides (pdf)

Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults
Mikhail Mamonov (CERGE-EI), Anna Pestova (CERGE-EI)
Slides (pdf)

A Bayesian Phillips Curve
Josep Navarro (University of Barcelona)
Slides (pdf)
Video

Higher-Order Income Risk over the Business Cycle
Christopher Busch (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Alexander Ludwig (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Slides (pdf)

Shadow Banking and Mortgage Rules: A Canadian Perspective
Ugochi Emenogu (Bank of Canada), Brian Peterson (Bank of Canada)
Slides (pdf)

CEMAC-GLOBAL: Introducing a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open Monetary Union of Oil-Exporting Developing Countries
Nelson Essiane (Bank of Central African States)
Slides (pdf)
Video

 

Edited 27 September 2020 20:00

Scientific committee

  • Philippe Andrade (Boston FED)
  • Saleem Bahaj (Bank of England)
  • Martin Blomhoff Holm (University of Oslo)
  • Cristina Fuentes-Albero (FED Board)
  • Andreas Fuster (Swiss National Bank)
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov (Bank of Canada)
  • Kevin Lansing (San Francisco FED)
  • Caterina Mendicino (ECB)
  • Gisle Natvik (BI Norwegian Business School)
  • Galo Nuño (Bank of Spain)
  • Kjetil Storesletten (University of Oslo)
Edited 27 September 2020 20:00