Employment trends in Norway
- Serie:
- Staff Memo
- Nummer:
- 1/2024
This paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend level
in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian
VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and cyclical components, using quarterly labor market data on 30 demographic sub-groups. Applied to the time period 1984-2019, we show that the estimated trend picks up known historical factors contributing to slow-moving employment dynamics. Additionally, the cyclical employment component shows strong correlation with the output gap estimate for Norway.
Staff Memo inneholder utredninger og dokumentasjon skrevet av Norges Banks ansatte og andre forfattere tilknyttet Norges Bank. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene er ikke nødvendigvis representative for Norges Bank.
ISSN 1504-2596 (online)