News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
- Author:
- Jon Ellingsen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud
- Series:
- Working Paper
- Number:
- 14/2020
Abstract
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information
not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.
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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)