Norges Bank

Working Paper

Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?

Author:
By Hilde C. Bjørnland, Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud.
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
1/2009

Abstract
We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model combination improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques and data to be used in the forecasting process.

Working Papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Også andre faglige analyser fra økonomer i Norges Bank utgis i serien. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning.

Norges Bank Working Papers distribueres også gjennom RepEc og BIS Central Bank Research Hub.

ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 27 January 2009 13:30
Published 27 January 2009 13:30