Norges Bank

Vegard H. Larsen

Researcher/senior adviser

Contact:

Tel.: +47 22 31 61 35
Mobile: +47 45 83 11 55
E-mail: Vegard-Hoghaug.Larsen@Norges-Bank.no
External homepage: vegardlarsen.com

Office: A5-324

Norges Bank
P.O. Box 1179 Sentrum
0107 Oslo
Norway

Research Interests

Macro- and monetary economics, time series econometrics, machine learning methods and natural language processing

On going research projects:

Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
with Leif Anders Thorsrud and Felix Kapfhammer.

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news-media-based measure of climate risk, and show that when climate risk is high, commodity currencies have a lower long-run value and the relationship between commodity prices and currencies tends to become weaker.

News media v. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
with Jon Ellingsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud.

Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive (DJ), we perform an in depth out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and invest- ment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not cap- tured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.

Business cycle narratives 
with Leif Anders Thorsrud

This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the news topics the media writes about. At a broad level, the most important news narratives are shown to be associated with general macroeconomic developments, finance, and (geo-)politics. However, a vast set of narratives contributes to our index estimates across time, especially in times of expansion. In times of trouble, narratives associated with economic fluctuations become more sparse. Likewise, we show that narratives do go viral, but mostly so when growth is low. While narratives interact in complicated ways, we document that some are clearly associated with economic fundamentals. Other narratives, on the other hand, show no such relationship, and are likely better explained by classical work capturing the market’s animal spirits

Asset returns, news topics, and media effects 
with Leif Anders Thorsrud
R&R: Scandinavian Journal of Economics

We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our three main findings are: (1) a one unit innovation in the news topics predict roughly a 1 percentage point increase in close-to-open returns and significant continuation patterns peaking at 4 percentage points after 15 business days, with little sign of reversal; (2) simple zero-cost news-based investment strategies yield significant annualized risk-adjusted returns of up to 20 percent; and (3) during a media shortage, due to an exogenous strike, returns for firms particularly exposed to our news measure experience a substantial fall. Our estimates suggest that between 20 to 40 percent of the news topics’ predictive power is due to the causal media effect. Together these findings lend strong support for a rational attention view where the media alleviate information frictions and disseminate fundamental information to a large population of investors.

Components of uncertainty  
International Economic Review (accepted).

Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media 
with Saskia ter Ellen and Leif Anders Thorsrud.
Journal of Money, Credit & Banking (accepted).

News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities 
wih Leif Anders Thorsrud and Julia Zhulanova.
Journal of Monetary Economics (forthcoming). 

Business cycles in an oil economy 
with Drago Bergholt and Martin Seneca.  
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 96, 283-303.

The value of news for economic developments 
with Leif Anders Thorsrud.
Journal of Econometrics 2019, 210(1), 203-218.

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 
with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Junior Maih.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018, 10 (4), 128-51.

Edited 18 November 2020 16:28