Macroeconomic modelling, monetary policy and financial stability
Karsten R. Gerdrup is Director in Modelling unit (Monetary policy and financial stability) at Norges Bank
- "Expecting the unexpected - can we predict risks to Norwegian GDP-growth?," Bankplassen blog, June 2019
- "Stresstester for makrotilsyn," (joint with Tord Krogh) Bankplassen blogg, February 2019
- "Leaning against the wind when credit bites back," (joint with Frank Hansen, Tord Krogh and Junior Maih), International Journal of Central Banking, September 2017
- "Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit," (joint with Andre K. Anundsen, Frank Hansen and Kasper Kragh-Sørensen), Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol 31, Issue 7, November/December 2016
- "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," (joint with Knut Are Aastveit, Anne Sofie Jore and Leif Anders Thorsrud), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol 32, Issue 1, pp. 48-68, 2014
- "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland, Anne Sofie Jore, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Christie Smith), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, 04.
- "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland, Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud), The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-76, January 2011
- "The neutral real interest rate," (joint with Tom Bernhardsen) Norges Bank Economic Bulletin 2/2007.
- "Financial variables and developments in the real economy", (joint with Roger Hammersland) and Bjørn E. Naug) Norges Bank Economic Bulletin 3/2006.
- "Kredittrisikooverføring," (joint with Ingrid Andresen), Norges Bank Penger og Kreditt 4/2004.
- "Norges Bank's role in the event of liquidity crises in the financial sector", Norges Bank Economic Bulletin 2/2005.
- "Three booms and busts involving banking crises in Norway since the 1890s," chapter 5 in Occasional paper 33: "The Norwegian Banking Crisis," Norges Bank
- "Banks' counterparty risk – results of a survey conducted by Norges Bank and the Banking, Insurance and Securities Commission," (joint with Bjørn Bakke) Norges Bank Economic Bulletin 2/2003.
- "The risk associated with banks' foreign borrowing," (joint with Arild J. Lund and Sindre Weme) Norges Bank Economic Bulletin 3/2000."Skattesystem og skattestatistikk i et historisk perspektiv", Rapport nr. 98/6, SSB
- "Leaning Against the Wind when Credit Bites Back," Working Paper 9/2016, Norges Bank (joint with Hansen, Krogh and Maih)
- "Bubbles and crises: The role of house prices and credit," Working Paper 14/2014, Norges Bank (joint with Anundsen, Hansen and Kragh-Sørensen)
- "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," Working Paper 6/2010, Norges Bank (joint with Bjørnland, Jore, Smith and Thorsrud)
- "Evaluating ensemble density combination – forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 19/2009, Norges Bank (joint with Jore, Smith and Thorsrud)
- "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Paper 1/2009, Norges Bank (joint with Bjørnland, Jore, Smith and Thorsrud)
- “Three episodes of financial fragility in Norway since the 1890s,” Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper No. 142, Basel, 2003.
Other written work
- "Documentation of NEMO - Norges Bank's core model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting," (joint with Erling Motzfeldt Kravik, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen and Ørjan Robstad), Norges Bank Staff memo 8/2017
- "A macroprudential stress testing framework," (joint with Henrik Andersen, Tord Krogh and Rønnaug Johansen) Norges Bank Staff memo 1/2019
- "The countercyclical capital buffer," (joint with Olaf Weeken and drawing on work in expert group) Chapter 2 in "The ESRB Handbook on Operationalising Macro-prudential Policy in the Banking Sector," European Systemic Risk Board, March 2014
- "Key indicators for a countercyclical capital buffer in Norway – Trends and uncertainty," (joint with Aslak Bakke Kvinlog and Eric Schaanning), Norges Bank staff memo 13/2013
- "Short-term forecasting of GDP and inflation in real-time: Norges Bank's system for averaging models," (joint with Knut Are Aastveit and Anne Sofie Jore), Norges Bank staff memo 9/2011
- "On the purpose of models – The Norges Bank experience," (joint with Jon Nicolaisen), Norges Bank staff memo 6/2011