Empirical macroeconomics, monetary policy, housing market, oil market, time-series econometrics, Bayesian statistics and forecasting
Knut Are Aastveit is the Deputy Director of Norges Bank Research. He is also affiliated with CAMP at BI Norwegian Business School and an associate editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics.
His research focus on empirical macroeconomics and time series. Special interests include forecasting, Bayesian econometrics, commodity prices, business cycles, housing market and monetary policy.
Knut Are holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Oslo.
Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil (joint with Jamie Cross and Herman van Dijk). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Forthcoming
Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis (joint with Francesco Furlanetto and Francesca Loria). Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming.
Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jamie Cross). Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming.
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets (joint with Andrè K. Anundsen). American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 14(4), 499-529, 2022.
Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting (joint with Kenichiro McAlinn, Jouchi Nakajima and Mike West). Journal of the American Statistical Association 115:531, 1092-1110, 2020.
Residential investment and recession predictability (joint with Andrè K. Anundsen and Eyo Herstad). International Journal of Forecasting 35(4), 1790-1799, 2019.
Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment (joint with Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36(1), 131-145, 2018.
Economic Uncertainty and the Influence of Monetary Policy (joint with Gisle J. Natvik and Sergio Sola). Journal of International Money and Finance 76, 50-67, 2017
Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis? (joint with Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino). Journal of Applied Econometrics 32(5), 931-951, 2017.
Density forecasts with MIDAS models (joint with Claudia Foroni and Francesco Ravazzolo). Journal of Applied Econometrics 32( 4), 783-801, 2017.
Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles (joint with Anne Sofie Jore and Francesco Ravazzolo). International Journal of Forecasting 32(2), 283-292, 2016.
The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Scandinavian Journal of Economics 118(1), 168-195, 2016.
What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Journal of Applied Econometrics 30(7), 1013-1028, 2015.
Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment. Energy Economics 45(C): 268-279, 2014.
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach (joint with Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 32(1), 48-68, 2014.
Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach (joint with Tørres G. Trovik). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 54(2), 180-193, 2014.
Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy (joint with Tørres G. Trovik). Empirical Economics 42(1), 95-119, 2012.
Articles in Books
The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics (joint with James Mitchell, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman van Dijk). Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, 2019. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.38
Comments and Discussions
Contributed discussion on: Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (joint with Kenichiro McAlinn and Mike West). Bayesian Analysis 13(3), 971-973, 2018.
Discussion of: Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models. International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), 613-615, 2014.
Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms (joint with Bruno Albuquerque and Andrè K. Anundsen). Accepted for publication by the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Media coverage: The Economist 1, The Economist 2, The Economist 3, VOX EU, Bank Underground blog
The leverage-liquidity trade-off of mortgage regulation (joint with Ragnar Enger Juelsrud and Ella Getz Wold). Submitted
Nowcasting Norwegian Household Consumption with Debit Card Transaction Data (joint with Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen and Kjersti Næss Torstensen). Submitted
The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Thomas Gundersen). Submitted
Work in progress
Quantile density combination: An application to US GDP forecasts (joint with Saskia ter Ellen and Giulia Mantoan)
How big is your bubble? The formation and duration of house price bubbles (with Andrè K. Anundsen, Bjørnar K. Kivedal and Erling Røed Larsen)
Estimating Taylor Rules: A Mixture Approach (with Jamie L. Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk)
Experienced Returns and Housing Decisions (joint with Andrè K. Anundsen and Patrick Moran)