Norges Bank

Knut Are Aastveit

Deputy Director of Norges Bank Research


Tel.: +47 22 31 61 21

Norges Bank
Bankplassen 2
P.O. Box 1179 Sentrum
0107 Oslo

Research interests

Empirical macroeconomics, monetary policy, housing market, oil market, time-series econometrics, Bayesian statistics and forecasting

Knut Are Aastveit is the Deputy Director of Norges Bank Research. He is also an Adjunct Professor affiliated with CAMP at BI Norwegian Business School and serves as an associate editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics.

His research focus on empirical macroeconomics and time series. Special interests include forecasting, Bayesian econometrics, commodity prices, business cycles, housing markets and monetary policy. 

Knut Are holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Oslo.


Journal Articles

Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms (joint with Bruno Albuquerque and Andrè K. Anundsen). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming. Media coverage: The Economist 1, The Economist 2, The Economist 3, VOX EU, Bank Underground blog

Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil (joint with Jamie Cross and Herman van Dijk). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 41(2), 523-537, 2023.

Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis (joint with Francesco Furlanetto and Francesca Loria). Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(5), 1314-1324, 2023.

Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jamie Cross). Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(3), 733-743, 2023.

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets (joint with Andrè K. Anundsen). American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 14(4), 499-529, 2022.

Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting (joint with Kenichiro McAlinn, Jouchi Nakajima and Mike West). Journal of the American Statistical Association 115:531, 1092-1110, 2020.

Residential investment and recession predictability (joint with Andrè K. Anundsen and Eyo Herstad). International Journal of Forecasting 35(4), 1790-1799, 2019.

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment (joint with Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36(1), 131-145, 2018.

Economic Uncertainty and the Influence of Monetary Policy (joint with Gisle J. Natvik and Sergio Sola). Journal of International  Money and Finance 76, 50-67, 2017.

Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis? (joint with Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino). Journal of Applied Econometrics 32(5), 931-951, 2017.

Density forecasts with MIDAS models (joint with Claudia Foroni and Francesco Ravazzolo). Journal of Applied Econometrics 32( 4), 783-801, 2017.

Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles (joint with Anne Sofie Jore and Francesco Ravazzolo). International Journal of Forecasting 32(2), 283-292, 2016.

The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Scandinavian Journal of Economics 118(1), 168-195, 2016.

What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Journal of Applied Econometrics 30(7), 1013-1028, 2015.

Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment. Energy Economics 45(C): 268-279, 2014.

Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach (joint with Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore and Leif Anders Thorsrud). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 32(1), 48-68, 2014.

Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach (joint with Tørres G. Trovik). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 54(2), 180-193, 2014.

Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy (joint with Tørres G. Trovik). Empirical Economics 42(1), 95-119, 2012.

Articles in Books

The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics (joint with James Mitchell, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman van Dijk).  Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, 2019. 

Comments and Discussions

Contributed discussion on: Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (joint with Kenichiro McAlinn and Mike West). Bayesian Analysis 13(3), 971-973, 2018.

Discussion of: Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models. International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), 613-615, 2014.

Working papers

The leverage-liquidity trade-off of mortgage regulation (joint with Ragnar E. Juelsrud and Ella Getz Wold). Submitted

Nowcasting Norwegian Household Consumption with Debit Card Transaction Data (joint with Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen and Kjersti Næss Torstensen). Accepted for publication by the Journal of Applied Econometrics

The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data (joint with Hilde C. Bjørnland and Thomas Gundersen). Revision requested by Quantitative Economics

Housing Bubble Scars (with Andrè K. Anundsen, Bjørnar K. Kivedal and Erling Røed Larsen). Submitted

The Housing Channel of Intergenerational Wealth Persistence (with Ella Getz Wold, Eirik Eylands Brandsaas, Ragnar E. Juelsrud and Gisle J. Natvik)

Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes (with Jamie L. Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk). Submitted

Work in progress

Quantile combination: An application to US GDP growth forecasts (joint with Saskia ter Ellen and Giulia Mantoan)

What Do 12 Billion Card Transactions Say About House Prices and Consumption? (with Jesper Böjeryd, Magnus A. H. Gulbrandsen, Ragnar E. Juelsrud and Kasper Roszbach)

Edited 16 May 2024 14:24