Norges Bank

Output gap

Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in inflation and variability in output and employment.

The output gap reflects our assessment of overall capacity utilisation in the economy in relation to a normal level. A positive output gap is normally referred to as a boom, while a negative output gap indicates that there is scarce capacity in the economy.

Norges Banks projections for the output gap is discussed further in the Monetary Policy Report.


Model estimates of the output gap
(Staff Memo 4/2018)

Norges Bank output gap estimates: Forecasting properties, reliability and cyclical sensitivity
(Working paper 7/2020)

Edited 25 May 2022 15:30
Edited 25 May 2022 15:30