http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 3/16
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1 GDP for trading partners
Chart 1.2 Trading partners' imports
Chart 1.3 CPI for trading partners
Chart 1.4 Spot and futures prices for crude oil and natural gas
Chart 1.5 Active rigs and oil production in the US
Chart 1.6 Yields on 10-year government bonds
Chart 1.7 Selected equity indices
Chart 1.8 Policy rates and estimated forward rates at 17 June 2016 and 16 September 2016
Chart 1.9 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.10 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.11 Three-month Nibor spread
Chart 1.12 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 1.13 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.14 Probability of a fall in economic activity
Chart 1.15 Output growth in regional network
Chart 1.16 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 1.17 Consumer confidence
Chart 1.18 Housing starts by county
Chart 1.19 Emplyment in quarterly national accounts
Chart 1.20 Expected change in employment
Chart 1.21 Number of vacancies and number of unemployed persons
Chart 1.22 Unemployment rate
Chart 1.23 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 1.24 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 1.25 Productivity growth in mainland Norway
Chart 1.26 CPI and CPI-ATE. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.27 CPI-ATE. Monthly change
Chart 1.28 CPI-ATE. In total and by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.29 CPI and CPI-ATE. Product groups with high import shares
Chart 1.30 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 1.31 CPI-ATE. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM
Chart 1.32 Petroleum investment annual change
Chart 1.33 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 1.34 Field development projects
Chart 1.35 Structural non-oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 1.36 Change in structural non-oil deficit
Chart 2.1 Consumer price index
Chart 2.2 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead
Chart 2.3 Regional network's indicator for annualised output growth
Chart 2.4a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4b Projected output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4d Projected CPI-ATE in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.5 Interest rates in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.6 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 2.7 Petroleum investment as a share of GDP
Chart 2.8 Unemployment in percent of labour force
Chart 2.9 Terms of trade
Chart 2.10 Annual wage growth
Chart 2.11 Labour cost share for mainland Norway
Chart 2.12 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 2.13 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 2.14 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 2.15 Private investment
Chart 2.16 Housing investment as a share of GDP
Chart 2.17 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 2.18 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.19 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 2.20 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 2.21a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 2/16
Chart 2.21b Output gap conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 2/16
Chart 2.21c CPI-ATE conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 2/16
Chart 2.22 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.23 Key policy rate
Chart 2.24 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since MPR 2/16
Chart 3.1 Change in house prices
Chart 3.2 House price-to-rent ratio
Chart 3.3 Household debt and house prices
Chart 3.4 New home sales
Chart 3.5 Selling prices and rents for commercial property
Chart 3.6 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 3.7 Total credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.8 Credit from selected funding sources to Norwegian non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.9 Changes in credit demand and banks' credit standards - enterprises
Chart 3.10 Price­to­book ratio, listed companies.
Chart 3.11 Banks' loan losses as a share of gross lending
Chart 3.12 Banking groups' Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratios
Chart 3.13 Total credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 3.14 Credit gap
Chart 3.15 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 3.16 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 3.17 House price gap
Chart 3.18 Real commercial property prices
Chart 3.19 Commercial property price gap
Chart 3.20 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 3.21 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 1 UK. Business surveys
Chart 2 UK. Retail sales and house prices
Chart 3 Euro area. GDP aggregated and for selected countries
Chart 4 Euro area. Housing investment
Chart 5 Sweden. Contribution to quarterly change in GDP
Chart 6 US. Contribution to quarterly change in GDP
Chart 7 US. Investment
Chart 8 China. Investment by sector
Chart 9 China. Return on capital in selected industries
Chart 10 Emerging economies. GDP
Chart 1 Long-term interest rates OECD countries
Chart 2 Five-year interest rates in five years
Chart 1 Expected effect on inflation and production gap
Chart 2 Expected effect on crisis probability
Chart 3 Expected effect on fall in production
Chart 4 Expected loss
Chart 1 Premium three-month dollar interest rates
Chart 1 Change in credit standards for households and non­financial enterprises
Chart 2 Change in loan conditions and factors affecting credit standards for non-financial enterprises
Chart 3 Change in loan conditions and factors affecting credit standards for households
Chart 4 Decomposition of changes in loan conditions for households accumulated over time
Chart 1 Estimated path for total consumption during recessions
Chart 2 Estimated path for durable consumption during recessions
Chart 3 Estimated path for non-durable consumption during recessions