The growth estimates have been revised upwards by a quarter of a percentage point for both years, partly because growth in Sweden and the UK will be higher than assumed by Norges Bank six months ago.

The growth outlook for the crisis-hit Asian countries has improved, and the financial crises in Russia and Brazil have not had the contagion effects feared by many. Economic developments in the US in the first half of the year indicate that growth will be relatively high in 1999, and growth in Japan also appears to be stronger than assumed earlier. One important element of uncertainty for the global economic outlook is future developments in the US economy, both with regard to equity prices and the growth rate in the period ahead.

Consumer price inflation among Norway's trading partners is estimated at 1¼ per cent in 1999 and 1½ per cent next year. The rise in oil prices and increase in some commodity prices will result in higher international inflationary impulses. On the other hand, factors such as expectations of subdued price inflation, strong international competition, the deregulation of service markets and low cost inflation will help to restrain consumer price inflation among our trading partners. Norges Bank's consumer price projections for Norway's trading partners therefore remain unchanged from the previous international survey.