Norges Bank

Working Paper

Macro modelling with many models

By Ida Wolden Bache, James Mitchell, Francesco Ravazzolo and Shaun P. Vahey.
Working Paper

We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary conditions) is explicitly accounted for by constructing ensemble predictive densities from a large number of component models. The components allow the modeller to explore a wide range of uncertainties; and the resulting ensemble `integrates out' these uncertainties using time-varying weights on the components. We provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting inflation with an ensemble DSGE.

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 17 August 2009 14:57
Published 17 August 2009 14:57