Norges Bank

Press release

Regional Network: Prospects for a decline in activity

The enterprises in Norges Bank’s Regional Network expect overall activity to remain unchanged in 2023 Q4 and to fall in 2024 Q1. At the same time, there are wide differences across industries. Oil services contacts indicate a pronounced increase in activity, while contacts in the construction industry expect a substantial fall. Enterprises report more spare capacity and fewer recruitment difficulties. Overall, enterprises expect annual wage growth of 5.4 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024.

In this survey, contacts report that the activity level will show little change in the period between 2023 Q3 and Q4. This is weaker than the expectations in the previous survey. The decline in construction and retail trade is accelerating, while growth in services has slowed. On the other hand, growth in oil services remains solid. Overall, contacts expect lower activity in the new year. All sectors expect weaker developments.

The share of contacts with capacity constraints has declined in most sectors, and recruitment is slightly less difficult than normal. At the same time, employment plans for 2023 Q4 have been revised down since the previous survey. Contacts now expect fairly stable employment in Q4 and a slight fall in 2024 Q1.

Contacts expect annual wage growth of 5.4 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024. Profitability among contacts is weaker than a year ago. 


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Published 7 December 2023 10:00
Published 7 December 2023 10:00