Norges Bank

Working Paper

Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply

Abstract

Long-run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take the stage in accounting for this slowdown: demand-side and supply-side. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends, identified using sign restrictions based on the co-movement of prices and quantities. While supply-side factors were the main driver of long-run GDP growth prior to 2000, demand-side factors explain half of its slowdown afterwards. The findings suggest a relevant role of demand forces as drivers of long-run growth.

Author:
Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
9/2021

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 21 September 2021 10:40
Published 21 September 2021 10:40