Norges Bank

Working Paper

Conditional forecasts in DSGE models

By Junior Maih
Working Paper


New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper
suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that need not be accurate. The technique presented allows for agents to anticipate the information on the conditioning variables several periods ahead. It also allows the forecaster to apply a continuum of degrees of uncertainty around the mean of the conditioning information, making hard-conditional and unconditional forecasts special cases. An application to a small open-economy DSGE model shows that the benefits of conditioning depend crucially on the ability of the model to capture the correlation between the conditioning information and the variables of interest.

Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.

Norges Bank’s Working Papers can also be found in Norges Bank's publication archive, RepEc and BIS Central Bank Research Hub

ISSN 1502-8143 (online)

Published 26 May 2010 09:48
Published 26 May 2010 09:48