Norges Bank

Working Paper

The power of weather. Some empirical evidence on predicting day-ahead power prices through weather forecasts

Author:
by Christian Huurman, Francesco Ravazzolo and Chen Zhou
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
8/2008

Abstract
This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium. Moreover, we find that the predictive power of weather forecasts for electricity prices can be further exploited by allowing for non-linear effects of the weather forecasts.

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 8 May 2008 11:00
Published 8 May 2008 11:00