Norges Bank

Working Paper

Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through

Author:
Ida Wolden Bache
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
12/2007

Abstract
This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to address the question: are structural VAR estimates of exchange rate pass-through a useful tool to evaluate macroeconomic models of open economies? The data generating process is a small open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through. The results suggest that (i) the pass-through estimates obtained from a first-differenced VAR exhibit a systematic downward bias; (ii) by contrast, estimates derived from a low order vector equilibrium correction model are fairly accurate; but (iii) standard cointegration tests have low power to detect the cointegration relations implied by the DSGE model.

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 23 December 2007 14:45
Published 23 December 2007 14:45