Norges Bank

Staff Memo

A financial conditions index for Norway

Nikka Husom Vonen
Staff Memo

Financial conditions indexes (FCIs) may be useful tools for policymakers because they may have the ability to summarize overall financial conditions for households and companies and at the same time provide timely information on real economic activity. A monthly FCI for Norway is constructed by using principal components based on 13 financial variables. Real-financial linkages are examined by correlation analyses and by analyzing in- and out-of-sample fit of a regression model. Through this exercise the FCI is found to be a useful leading indicator of Norwegian GDP growth. Alternative FCIs are also considered, in particular an FCI based on variables purged of business cycle effects.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 6 July 2011 08:30
Published 6 July 2011 08:30