Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Monetary policy analysis in practice

By Ragna Alstadheim, Ida Wolden Bache, Amund Holmsen, Junior Maih and Øistein Røisland
Staff Memo


Norges Bank is one of few central banks publishing an interest rate forecast. This paper discusses how we derive and communicate the interest rate forecast. To produce the forecasts, the Bank uses a medium-sized small open-economy DSGE model - NEMO. Judgments and information from other sourcesare added through conditional forecasting. The interest rate path is derived by minimizing a loss function representing the monetary policy mandate and the Board's policy preferences. Since optimal policy is vulnerable to model uncertainty, some weight is placed on simple interest rate rules. A weight on the deviation of the interest rate from the level implied by a simple rule is included in the loss function.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 28 October 2010 14:59
Published 28 October 2010 14:59