Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Stress testing the enterprise sector's bank debt - a micro approach

By Eivind Bernhardsen and Bjørne Dyre Syversten
Staff Memo

This paper describes Norges Bank’s micro stress testing framework for assessing the Norwegian banking sector’s losses on loans to the non-financial enterprise sector. Using projected macro variables and a stock-flow approach, annual financial statements of every firm in Norway are projected five years ahead. The loan loss potential is then assessed using a credit scoring model. We present a backtest of projections taking the history of macro variables as given. Our results are fairly good using a relatively simple set-up, and we conclude that stock-flow projections of financial statements can be useful for stress testing banks’ loan portfolios.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 22 October 2008 09:00
Published 22 October 2008 09:00