Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Employment trends in Norway

Staff Memo

This paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend level
in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian
VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and cyclical components, using quarterly labor market data on 30 demographic sub-groups. Applied to the time period 1984-2019, we show that the estimated trend picks up known historical factors contributing to slow-moving employment dynamics. Additionally, the cyclical employment component shows strong correlation with the output gap estimate for Norway.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 19 January 2024 14:30
Published 19 January 2024 14:30