Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway

Frida Bowe, Sara J. Kirkeby, Ingvild H. Lindalen, Kristine A. Matsen, Sara S. Meyer and Ørjan Robstad
Staff Memo


This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the uncertainty forecasts. This approach helps provide deeper insights into the macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding forecasts than more traditional time-series models, where uncertainty is usually symmetric and with limited time-variation. Formal tests, such as the log score and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), show that using informative indicators tend to improve density forecasts, particularity in the medium run.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 23 June 2023 10:00
Published 23 June 2023 10:00