Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Handling structural break points in NEMO

Erling Motzfeldt Kravik and Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen
Staff Memo


This paper documents a new feature in Norges Bank’s policy model NEMO, namely the ability to handle structural break points, i.e. shifts in one or more parameter values at a specific point in time. This property is introduced to enable the model to answer new policy-relevant questions, such as the effect of changes in the inflation target and the effect of a sudden drop in the expected long-term oil price. We document the theoretical solution technique and illustrate its usage through a practical example. Additionally, we present a procedure for estimating break points. Our results indicate that including structural shifts is important when interpreting data. Neglecting structural shifts can lead to wrong interpretations of history, which, potentially, could also affect forecast performance.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 7 February 2020 15:25
Published 7 February 2020 15:25