Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Estimates of the neutral rate of interest in Norway

Leif Brubakk, Jon Ellingsen and Ørjan Robstad
Staff Memo

In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to the Laubach-Williams model, respectively. In line with international evidence, all estimates indicate a falling trend. Furthermore, the estimates for Norway suggest that the Norwegian neutral short-term money market rate is now close to 0 percent in real terms.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 22 August 2018 16:00
Published 22 August 2018 16:00