Norges Bank

Staff Memo

On the risk of a fall in household consumption in Norway

Bjørn H. Vatne
Staff Memo


This paper utilises household level data from administrative registers to illustrate that Norwegian households' high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios could prompt an increase in household saving in the event of a rise in interest rates and/or a fall in house prices. Both higher direct net interest expenses and higher principal payments could displace consumption. The effect will depend on the financial situation of each household. If we assume a 3 percentage point increase in interest rates and a 30 percent fall in house prices, the calculations indicate that total household income available for consumption could fall by as much as 8 percent.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 26 November 2014 15:15
Published 26 November 2014 15:15