Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Evaluating real-time forecasts from Norges Bank’s system for averaging models

Anne Sofie Jore
Staff Memo


We evaluate forecasts of GDP growth and inflation made by the system of averaging models (SAM) and compare their performance with Norges Bank's forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. We assess the new version of SAM, as well as the ones that were actually used from 2008 until the end of 2010. We conclude that SAM forecasts perform quite well. In particular for inflation, the forecasting performance seems to have improved with the new version of SAM.

Staff Memos present reports and documentation written by staff members and affiliates of Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway. Views and conclusions expressed in Staff Memos should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 11 April 2012 13:26
Published 11 April 2012 13:26