Working Paper

Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management

Author: Farooq Akram, Andrew Binning and Junior Maih
Series: Working Paper
Number: 7/2016

Working Paper 7/2016 (PDF 786.8 Kb)

Abstract:

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty present in forecasts from multivariate time series models. Second, we suggest a new measure for assessing the plausibility of non-central point forecasts. And third, we describe how to use the density forecasts from a multivariate time series model to assess the probability of a set of future events occurring. An additional novelty of this paper is our use of a regime-switching DSGE model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint, estimated on US data, to produce the density forecasts. The tools we off er will allow practitioners to better assess and communicate joint forecast probabilities, a criticism that has been leveled at central bank communications.

Published 29 April 2016 11:00