Today, Norges Bank has published a forecast of bank liquidity for 2026. See Liquidity in the banking system.

The forecast for 2026 is updated with information until today. There is greater uncertainty in the estimates for incoming and outgoing payments over the government’s account than in previous years, especially in January and February. This is due to changes in the pattern for remittance of prepayment deductions to the Norwegian Tax Administration. From 1 January 2026, prepayment deductions are to be paid directly to the Norwegian Tax Administration, no later than the first business day after salary payment. This restructuring results in changes in both the timing and the distribution of tax payments throughout the year. The uncertainty in the forecast is expected to decrease as the pattern of tax payments becomes clearer.

Norges Bank’s upcoming programme for the issuance of central bank certificates is not included in the forecast for 2026.