Countercyclical capital buffer rate unchanged at 2.5%
At its meeting on 6 May 2026, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the countercyclical capital buffer rate unchanged at 2.5%.
About the countercyclical capital buffer
The countercyclical capital buffer is intended to strengthen banks’ solvency and mitigate the risk that banks amplify an economic downturn.
The countercyclical capital buffer rate is intended, in principle, to range between 0 and 2.5%. Norges Bank will normally set the buffer rate in the upper part of this range. If a downturn will or could cause a marked reduction in credit supply, the countercyclical capital buffer rate should be lowered. In the event of particularly high cyclical vulnerabilities, the countercyclical capital buffer rate may be set above 2.5%. If cyclical vulnerabilities recede significantly over time and the financial stability outlook is good, the buffer rate may be reduced. Norges Bank sets the countercyclical capital buffer rate each quarter.
The international situation is marked by uncertainty
The war in the Middle East has led to high volatility in energy and financial markets and is creating greater uncertainty than normal about the economic outlook. In a global, interconnected financial system, shocks may quickly impact the Norwegian financial system. Financial system vulnerabilities could amplify a potential downturn in the Norwegian economy and lead to bank losses.
Households and firms have ample access to credit
In Norges Bank's Survey of Bank Lending for 2026 Q1, banks report that household credit demand fell slightly, while corporate demand remained unchanged. In 2026 Q2, banks expect slightly higher household demand but unchanged corporate demand. Banks report unchanged credit standards. Credit premiums for both financial and non‑financial corporates have risen slightly following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East but remain lower than observed during the market turbulence in spring 2025. Heightened uncertainty has dampened bond market activity somewhat, but bond market functioning has been orderly. In Norges Bank’s overall assessment, households and firms have ample access to credit.
Household debt growth is slower than income growth
High and rapidly rising debt can amplify economic downturns and increase the risk of financial crises. Total household debt has risen less than income in recent years. Debt-to-income (DTI) ratios have declined broadly across households and most for those with the highest debt (see Financial Stability Report 2025 H2). If DTI ratios decline over time, the household sector will become less vulnerable to interest rate increases and loss of income.
During the years following the pandemic, higher interest rates and high inflation tightened household finances. However, most households have been able to service debt and cover normal living expenses with current earnings. Wage growth has outpaced inflation over the past two years, and there are prospects that this will continue in 2026. This increases households' purchasing power and improves their debt-servicing capacity, also when taking into account higher interest rates. After rising since spring 2024, the 12-month change in credit to households has remained stable at 4.7% so far in 2026. Household credit growth is still slower than in the pre-pandemic years. Credit growth is normally closely linked to housing market developments. Following a period of moderate house price inflation in autumn 2025, this inflation has slowed and was 3% in February and March. Turnover in the secondary housing market is still high and activity remains low in the primary housing market.
Conditions remain difficult for real estate developers, and uncertainty has increased for CRE firms
Banks’ have high CRE exposures. Commercial property selling prices rose at the beginning of 2025 but developments have since been stable. Minor changes in these prices are expected ahead (see Financial Stability Report 2026 H1). Higher policy rate expectations have pushed up long-term interest rates. This reduces CRE firms' debt-servicing capacity and puts pressure on property values.
Defaults on bank loans continue to rise among real estate developers, where higher interest rates and low construction activity have put pressure on profitability and debt‑servicing capacity in recent years. In Norges Bank's Survey of Bank Lending for 2026 Q1, four out of nine banks report a somewhat higher risk of default and breach of the terms of loan covenants in real estate development over the past six months. Somewhat higher bank losses are expected on exposures to this sector (see Financial Stability Report 2026 H1).
The financial system is resilient and this must be sustained
Norwegian banks are highly profitable and satisfy capital and liquidity requirements by an ample margin. Bank losses are still low. The solvency stress test in Financial Stability Report 2026 H1 shows that banks can absorb substantial credit losses while maintaining lending capacity.
The countercyclical capital buffer requirement contributes to financial system resilience. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee considers the Norwegian financial system to be robust.
The Committee unanimously decided to keep the countercyclical capital buffer rate unchanged at 2.5%.
Ida Wolden Bache
Pål Longva
Øystein Børsum
Hilde C. Bjørnland
Steinar Holden
6 May 2026