Rate effective from 6 November 2026:

• Policy rate: 4.50%
• Overnight lending rate: 5.50%
• Reserve rate: 3.50%

Contact:

Press telephone: +47 21 49 09 30
Email: presse@norges-bank.no

The introduction was published when the press conference started at 10.30 am.

Norges Bank is tasked with keeping inflation low and stable. The operational target is inflation of close to 2% over time. We are also mandated to help keep employment as high as possible and to promote economic stability.

Inflation has been above target for several years. Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy has declined and appears to be slightly below a normal level. At the monetary policy meeting in September, the policy rate was raised to 4.5%, and the Committee judged that it would likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time. Since September, the Committee has noted the following:

• The conflicts in the Middle East are still creating substantial uncertainty about the inflation outlook. Oil spot prices have fallen, but futures prices have increased somewhat. Spot and futures prices for gas and electricity have moved up. Indicators of external price impulses to Norwegian imported goods have risen further as expected. The krone has appreciated and is stronger than assumed. In Norway, inflation has evolved broadly as projected. Twelve-month CPI inflation was 3.4% in September, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was 3.0%. Domestically produced goods and services inflation remains elevated and has been higher than projected in the September Report.
• Both LFS data and registered unemployment statistics indicate little change in unemployment in recent months. Registered unemployment has been a bit lower than projected. Preliminary figures for the number of salaried employees indicate that employment has increased a little more than expected.

The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon. Inflation remains markedly above target, and the rapid rise in business costs in recent years will likely contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead. High inflation over time can make inflation stickier and harder to bring down again. At the same time, the Committee does not want to restrict the economy more than needed.

The Committee has not received information indicating that the outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed materially since its monetary policy meeting in September. The Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. The Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time. The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate if warranted by the inflation outlook.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on how the economy evolves. The Committee will have received more information about economic developments ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in December, when new forecasts will also be presented.

Ida Wolden Bache
Pål Longva
Øystein Børsum
Hilde C. Bjørnland
Steinar Holden

4 November 2026

Monetary policy decision, 4 November 2026

At its meeting on 4 November, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent. This is a summary of the deliberations and assessments at the meetings leading to the policy rate decision.¹

New forecasts were not prepared for this meeting. New information was assessed against the projections in Monetary Policy Report 3/26, which was published on 24 September 2026. In the September forecast, the policy rate remains close to 4.5 percent for a period ahead, before declining somewhat. With such a rate path, inflation was projected to slow from next year and move down to 2 percent in 2029, and registered unemployment was projected to edge up.

International economy and financial markets

In its discussion, the Committee was concerned with the uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook. Energy prices remain elevated owing in part to the conflicts in the Middle East. Since September, oil spot prices have fallen, but futures prices have risen somewhat. Spot and futures prices for gas and electricity have moved up. At the same time, prices for aluminium and various agricultural products have fallen. Indicators of external price impulses to Norwegian imported goods have risen further as expected.

Economic growth among Norway’s trading partners appears to have been somewhat stronger in the third quarter of 2026 than projected in the September Report. AI-related investment continues to lift growth in the US. Since September, international forecasters have revised up their economic growth forecasts for Norway’s trading partners this year, while the forecasts for 2027 are little changed. An average of the different forecasts is close to the Bank’s forecasts in the September Report.

After having risen markedly in autumn, long-term interest rates in most countries have fallen somewhat since the September Report. In some European countries, among others France, long-term government bond yields have risen further. Leading global equity indices have declined slightly since September. The decline was mainly driven by a fall in technology stocks. Credit spreads on both US and European corporate bonds have increased. Market-implied policy rate expectations have fallen somewhat among our main trading partners. Norwegian policy rate expectations have declined a little since the publication of the September Report. The market is pricing in a policy rate increase by the end of the first half of 2027.

The krone has appreciated since September and is stronger than assumed. The krone has appreciated against many currencies.

Activity in the Norwegian economy and the labour market

In the September Report, capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy was assessed to have declined to slightly below a normal level. Preliminary figures for the number of salaried employees indicate that employment has increased a little more than projected in September. Registered unemployment was unchanged at 2.0 percent in October, a bit lower than expected. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) indicates little change in unemployment in recent months.

There has been little new information about household and business demand. Card transaction data and the index of wholesale and retail sales indicate that household consumption has increased broadly as projected. Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, house prices have risen as expected, while new home sales and the number of building permits remain at very low levels.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that the Government’s fiscal budget proposal for 2027 will have a more or less neutral effect on Norwegian economic activity next year. The proposal entails central government spending broadly on a par with that assumed in the September Report.

Inflation

Inflation has remained elevated and been broadly as projected. Twelve-month CPI inflation was 3.4 percent in September, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was 3.0 percent. An average of underlying inflation indicators was unchanged from August to September and was close to the CPI-ATE inflation rate. Domestically produced goods and services inflation remained elevated and was higher than expected. At the same time, imported consumer goods inflation slowed and was lower than expected.

In its discussion of the inflation outlook, members noted that according to the System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART), which weighs together forecasts from a broad set of models, the near-term inflation forecasts are close to the forecasts in the September Report. New information on the drivers of inflation pulls in different directions. Higher-than-assumed energy prices pull in the direction of higher inflation, while the krone appreciation in isolation will have a dampening effect.

Monetary policy stance

In deliberating the monetary policy stance, members referred to the analyses and communication from the September monetary policy meeting.

Members agreed that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon. The Committee placed emphasis on the fact that inflation has remained above target for several years and that the rapid rise in business costs in recent years will likely contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead. High inflation over time can make inflation stickier and harder to bring down. At the same time, members placed emphasis on avoiding a stance that could restrict the economy more than needed.  

The Committee has not received information indicating that the outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed materially since its monetary policy meeting in September.

Members agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting. Members' current assessment of the outlook implies that it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time. The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate if warranted by the inflation outlook.

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Committee members in attendance: Ida Wolden Bache, Pål Longva, Øystein Børsum, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Steinar Holden

¹⁾ The summary does not specify the number of members who express a particular view. Words such as “some”, “a few” and “others” may refer to one or more members.