Rate decision November 2025
At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
Rate decision - press release
Policy rate kept unchanged at 4 percent
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent at its meeting on 5 November. The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
“The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and we are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate”, says Governor Ida Wolden Bache.
Monetary policy has contributed to cooling down the Norwegian economy and to dampening inflation in recent years. Inflation is still above target, and underlying inflation has been close to 3 percent for some time. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat, and capacity utilisation in the economy has declined to a normal level. The Committee began a cautious normalisation of monetary policy before summer, and the policy rate has been reduced twice, from 4.5 percent to 4 percent.
The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed. Inflation is still too high. If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target. The policy rate forecast presented in September was consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years. The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy. The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
“If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year”, says Governor Ida Wolden Bache.
The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
The Committee will have received more information about economic developments ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in December, when new forecasts will be presented.
New forecasts were not prepared for this meeting. Monetary Policy Report 4/25 will be published along with the monetary policy decision on 18 December 2025.
Rate effective from 7 November 2025:
- Policy rate: 4,0 %
- Overnight lending rate: 5,0 %
- Reserve rate: 3,0 %
Contact:
Press telephone: +47 21 49 09 30
Email: presse@norges-bank.no
Press conference - video
17:45
Governor Ida Wolden Bache: Press conference on 6 November at 10.30 am (In Norwegian)
Press conference - Introductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache
Policy rate kept unchanged at 4 percent
Introductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following the announcement of the policy rate on 6 November 2025.
The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
Norges Bank is tasked with keeping inflation low and stable. The operational target is inflation of close to 2 percent over time. We are also mandated to help keep employment as high as possible and to promote economic stability.
Chart 2: We do not envisage a large decrease in the policy rate ahead
In response to the inflation surge in 2022, we raised the policy rate sharply and rapidly. The tightening of monetary policy has contributed to cooling down the Norwegian economy and to dampening inflation. In June, we began a cautious normalisation of monetary policy. The policy rate was also reduced at our previous monetary policy meeting in September, but we did not envisage a large decrease in the policy rate ahead. The forecast we presented was consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years.
The Committee's current assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since September. The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed. If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
Chart 3: Domestic prices are still rising rapidly
Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year. Import price inflation is low for many goods, while high services inflation is contributing to a continued rapid rise in domestic prices. The sharp rise in business costs over the past years will likely restrain domestic disinflation ahead. At the same time, we expect lower wage growth to push down inflation further out.
Chart 4: Registered unemployment is close to pre-pandemic levels
Unemployment has increased from its lowest level three years ago. According to last week’s data, registered unemployment now stands at 2.2 percent. While registered unemployment is back at its pre-pandemic level, the Labour Force Survey indicates that unemployment has risen somewhat more. The employment ratio is nevertheless higher than in 2019. Since the previous monetary policy meeting, employment appears to have been somewhat lower than projected, while unemployment has been a little higher.
Chart 5: Inflation down to target without a marked increase in unemployment
The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and we are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate. If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation back to target. With the policy rate path we envisaged in September, the outlook suggests that inflation will return to target without a large increase in unemployment.
But the outlook is uncertain. The future path of the policy rate will depend on how the economy evolves. Our objectives stand firm. We will finish the job and ensure that inflation is brought all the way back to 2 percent.
The Committee's assessment
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee unanimously decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent at its meeting on 5 November. The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
About the Committee's assessment
The Committee’s assessment summarises the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee members’ assessments that led to the monetary policy decision at the meeting on 5 November 2025. New forecasts were not prepared for this monetary policy meeting. New information was assessed against the projections in Monetary Policy Report 3/25, which was published on 18 September 2025. The policy rate forecast in the Report was consistent with a gradual decline in the policy rate to somewhat above 3 percent towards the end of 2028. Registered unemployment was expected to increase a little, while inflation was projected to move down and be close to 2 percent in 2028.
The operational target of monetary policy is annual consumer price inflation of close to 2 percent over time. Inflation targeting shall be forward-looking and flexible so that it can contribute to high and stable output and employment and to counteracting the build-up of financial imbalances.
Monetary policy has contributed to cooling down the Norwegian economy and to dampening inflation in recent years. Inflation is still above target, and underlying inflation has been close to 3 percent for some time. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat, and capacity utilisation in the economy has declined to a normal level. The Committee began a cautious normalisation of monetary policy before summer, and the policy rate has been reduced twice, from 4.5 percent to 4 percent.
The Committee noted that the outlook for the international economy remains highly uncertain. US import tariffs were raised substantially earlier this year. The tariffs have changed little since the previous monetary policy meeting, but global trade policies remain uncertain. The tariff increases since the beginning of this year will likely dampen economic growth among trading partners, but the data available to date indicate slightly stronger third-quarter growth than projected. International forecasters have made only small revisions to their growth forecasts. Euro area inflation is close to target, while inflation among other main trading partners is still somewhat higher. Oil and natural gas prices have fluctuated somewhat and are now lower than at the time of the September meeting.
Movements in international financial markets have been relatively subdued since the September Report. Major equity indices have risen, while interest rate expectations are little changed. In Norway, the market has priced in a policy rate reduction in June 2026, and longer-term policy rate expectations are slightly lower than in September. The money market has priced in rising premiums ahead, which are now expected to be somewhat higher than what was priced in at the time of the September Report. The increase in premiums can be viewed in the context of Norges Bank's plans to withdraw surplus liquidity from the banking system by issuing central bank certificates over the course of 2026. The krone exchange rate has weakened since the September meeting and is now somewhat weaker than projected.
Since the previous Report, registered unemployment has been a little higher than expected. Registered unemployment rose to 2.2 percent in October. According to the Labour Force Survey, unemployment has remained unchanged at 4.7 percent since July after increasing through the first half of 2025. Preliminary figures for the number of salaried employees may indicate that employment was somewhat lower in the third quarter than projected. At the same time, the number of job vacancies indicates sustained demand for labour.
Spending in the central government budget proposal for 2026 is broadly in line with that assumed in the previous Monetary Policy Report. The budget proposal entails an increase in electric vehicle taxes from 2026, which may lead to an upswing in car sales in the period to the end of this year. Since the September Report, growth in retail trade has been a little weaker than expected. House prices have risen broadly in line with that projected. The number of building permits has increased slightly in recent months, but new home sales are still low.
Since the previous Report, inflation has been slightly lower than expected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6 percent in September, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) declined to 3.0 percent. High services inflation is still keeping domestic inflation elevated, while imported goods inflation has been low over the past year. Food inflation remains high. The strong growth in business costs in recent years will likely restrain disinflation ahead, but lower wage growth is expected to push down inflation further out. The Committee noted that more information about price developments and the drivers of inflation going forward will become available in the period to the next monetary policy meeting.
The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed. Inflation is still too high. If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target. The policy rate forecast presented in September was consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years. The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy. The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
The Committee will have received more information about economic developments ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in December, when new forecasts will be presented.
Ida Wolden Bache
Pål Longva
Øystein Børsum
Ingvild Almås
Steinar Holden
5 November 2025