Norges Bank

Working Paper

Revisiting the Asian Currency Crisis in South Korea: A Counterfactual Analysis using a Regime-Switching DSGE Model

Author:
Junior Maih and Wooheon Rhee
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
6/2025

Abstract

The 1997 Asian financial crisis profoundly disrupted East Asian economies, with South
Korea experiencing severe economic distress. This study utilizes a regime-switching dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the macroeconomic implications of alternative monetary and exchange rate policies. Counterfactual analysis indicates that moderate monetary tightening in early 1998, combined with a strategic currency devaluation in late 1997, could have substantially alleviated the crisis’s intensity and duration. These findings provide valuable insights for crisis management in emerging economies, underscoring the potential of tailored policy interventions to enhance macroeconomic stability.

Keywords: Small open emerging economy; Asian currency crisis; Regime switching; DSGE JEL Classifications: C11; E37; E58; F41

Norges Bank’s Working Papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.

Norges Bank’s Working Papers can also be found in Norges Bank's publication archive, RepEc and BIS Central Bank Research Hub

ISSN 1502-8143 (online)

Published 20 June 2025 09:28
Published 20 June 2025 09:28