Minor changes in growth prospects
Norges Bank's Regional Network contacts expect moderate output growth through 2026 H2. Contacts point to improved household purchasing power, higher defence spending and data centre buildout as important growth drivers. At the same time, low construction activity is dampening growth. The share of contacts reporting full capacity utilisation has been below its historical average over the past year, and in this survey, the share has fallen further. The share of contacts reporting difficulties recruiting qualified labour is also lower than both the historical average and compared with the previous survey.
Overall, Regional Network contacts expect output growth of 0.3% in both 2026 Q3 and Q4. On the whole, contacts' growth expectations for Q3 are little changed from the previous survey. All sectors, with the exception of oil services, expect higher activity ahead.
Contacts expect investment to be somewhat higher in 2026 than in 2025 and investment growth to pick up in 2027.
In this survey, 28 percent of contacts report full capacity utilisation. At the same time, the share reporting recruitment difficulties has fallen to 17%. Contacts expect weak employment growth through 2026 H2.
Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. Overall, profitability among contacts is broadly unchanged from 2025 Q3.
Contact:
Press telephone: +47 22 31 60 60
Email: presse@norges-bank.no