http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 2/17
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Projected key policy rate with fan chart and projected key policy rate in MPR 1/17
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart and projections of output gap from MPR 1/17
Chart 1.1c Projected CPI with fan chart and projected CPI from MPR 1/17
Chart 1.1d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart and projected CPI-ATE from MPR 1/17
Chart 1.2 GDP for trading partners. Annual growth
Chart 1.3 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.4 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.5 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Growth in employment in the quarterly national accounts and the regional network
Chart 1.7 House prices
Chart 1.8 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.9 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.10 Petroleum investment. Annual change
Chart 1.11 Budget impulse
Chart 1.12 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2.1 Global GDP and GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.2 Investment and capital goods orders and production
Chart 2.3 CPI in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.4 Yields on ten-year government bonds
Chart 2.5 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.6 Selected equity price indexes
Chart 2.7 Actual and planned investment in the US
Chart 2.8 Unemployment in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.9 GDP and activity indicators in the euro area
Chart 2.10 Labour force participation rate and unemployment in Sweden
Chart 2.11 Investment in China
Chart 2.12 Wage growth in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.13 Unit labour costs in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.14 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.15 Active rigs and crude oil production in the US
Chart 3.1 Three-month money market premium
Chart 3.2 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 3.3 Interest rates
Chart 3.4 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 3.5 Output growth as reported by regional network
Chart 3.6 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.7 Household consumption of goods and services
Chart 3.8 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.9 Households debt ratio, interest burden and debt-service ratio
Chart 3.10 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.11 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.12 House prices and household debt
Chart 3.13 Housing investment and house prices
Chart 3.14 Housing, petroleum and business investments as a share of GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.15 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 3.16 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.17 Employed persons in the quarterly national accounts and the LFS
Chart 3.18 Employment in different sectors
Chart 3.19 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 3.20 Expected change in employment
Chart 3.21 Announced downsizing by counties
Chart 3.22 Labour force participation rates. Labour force as a share of the population
Chart 3.23 Net immigration by country of origin
Chart 3.24 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 3.26 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 3.27 Contribution to annual wage growth from composition effects
Chart 3.28 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations. Annual growth
Chart 3.29 Annual wage growth
Chart 3.30 Operating profit for mainland Norway
Chart 3.31 CPI-ATE in MPR 2/17 with fan chart
Chart 3.32 CPI-ATE. Four-quarter change
Chart 3.33 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.34 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.35 Public sector demand and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.36 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 3.37 Field development projects in billions of NOK
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 14 OECD countries
Chart 4.3a Projections for the key policy rate from MPR 1/17
Chart 4.3b CPI-ATE conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 1/17
Chart 4.3c Output gap conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 1/17
Chart 4.4a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.4b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.4c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.4d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.5 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.6 Factors behind the change in key policy forecast from latest MPR
Chart 4.7 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 4.8 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 1 Unemployment as a share of the labour force.
Chart 2 Kalman filters with GDP and wages
Chart 3 Beveridgen curve
Chart 4 Share of people with unemployment benefits from NAV
Chart 5.1 Non-performing loans as a share of gross loans
Chart 5.2 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.3 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.4 Household interest burden and debt service ratio
Chart 5.5 Credit demand and banks' credit standards - households
Chart 5.6 Share of households with debt exceeding five times gross annual income
Chart 5.7 Credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.8 Credit to non-financial enterprises, by source
Chart 5.9 Credit from banks and mortgage companies, bonds and short-term paper, by sector
Chart 5.10 Net debt ratio for listed companies
Chart 5.11 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.12 Change in house prices
Chart 5.13 Change in housing rental prices
Chart 5.14 New home sales
Chart 5.15 Office property values
Chart 5.16 CET1 capital ratios and targets for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.17 Corporate lending by banks and mortgage companies
Chart 5.18 Addition of dwellings in Norway
Chart 5.19 Addition of dwellings and increase in number of households
Chart 5.20 Housing starts and completions
Chart 5.21 Credit gap
Chart 5.22 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 5.23 House price gap
Chart 5.24 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.25 Commercial property price gap
Chart 5.26 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 5.27 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 5.28 Estimated crisis probabilities based on various model specifications