Monetary policy report 1/19
with financial stability assessment
Chart 1.1a Policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Estimated output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c Consumer price index (CPI) with fan chart
Chart 1.1d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.3 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 1.4 Oil price
Chart 1.5 GDP for mainland Norway and the Regional Network's indicator of output growth
Chart 1.6 Employment growth according to the quarterly national accounts and Regional Network
Chart 1.7 CPI and CPI-ATE
Chart 1.8 Interest rates
Chart 1.9 Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.10 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.11 Petroleum investment
Chart 1.12 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 1.13 Wages
Chart 2.1 Global PMI
Chart 2.2 Three-month money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.3 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.6 Headline and core inflation in selected countries
Chart 2.7 Wage growth and estimated output gap in selected countries
Chart 2.8 Indicator of international inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods with compositional effect (IPC)
Chart 2.9 Unemployment and wage growth in the euro area
Chart 2.10 Outlook for UK manufacturers and households
Chart 2.11 New export orders, manufacturing PMI and change in exports in China
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 Oil and natural gas prices
Chart 3.1 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.2 Output growth by sector as reported by the Regional Network
Chart 3.3 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.4 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.5 Household saving and net lending
Chart 3.6 House prices
Chart 3.7 House prices and household debt
Chart 3.8 Housing investment and real house prices
Chart 3.9 Mainland business investment by sector
Chart 3.10 Business investment for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.11 Labour costs in Norway relative to trading partners
Chart 3.12 Export-oriented output according to the Regional Network
Chart 3.13 Exports from mainland Norway
Chart 3.14 Employment
Chart 3.15 Expected employment
Chart 3.16 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 3.17 Registered unemployment and unemployment benefit recipients
Chart 3.18 Employment share
Chart 3.19 Capacity utilisation and labour supply constraints as reported by the Regional Network
Chart 3.20 Estimated output gap
Chart 3.21 Productivity development in upturns
Chart 3.22 Net immigration by country of origin
Chart 3.23 CPI, CPI-ATE and energy prices in the CPI
Chart 3.24 CPI-ATE by supplier sector
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE with fan chart from SAM
Chart 3.26 Energy prices in CPI
Chart 3.27 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations
Chart 3.28 Labour income share for mainland Norway.
Chart 3.29 Share of labour costs in manufacturing
Chart 3.30 Domestically produced goods and services in the CPI-ATE
Chart 3.31 CPI and CPI-ATE
Chart 3.32 CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.33 Expected 12-month change in consumer prices five years ahead
Chart 3.34 Norwegian three-month money market premium
Chart 3.35 Three-month money market rate and estimated forward rates
Chart 3.36 Five- and ten-year swaprates
Chart 3.37 Interest rates
Chart 3.38 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners
Chart 3.39 Empirical model for import-weighted krone exchange rate (I-44)
Chart 3.40 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the GPFG
Chart 3.41 Public sector demand
Chart 3.42 Petroleum investment
Chart 3.43 Investment in field development and fields in production
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index (CPI)
Chart 4.2 GDP for mainland Norway and employment.
Chart 4.3 Three-month money market rate and real interest rates
Chart 4.4a CPI-ATE
Chart 4.4b Estimated output gap
Chart 4.5a Policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.5b Estimated output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.5c CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.5d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.6 Policy rate
Chart 4.7 Real interest rate
Chart 4.8 Factors behind the changes in policy rate forecast since MPR 4/18
Chart 4.9 Real exchange rate
Chart 4.10 Changes in key variables in NEMO
Chart 5.1 Global equity and bond indexes
Chart 5.2 European equity indexes, non-preforming loans (NPLs) and European bank profitability
Chart 5.3 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.4 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.5 Domestic credit to households and non­financial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.6 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.7 Bank and mortgage company lending to Norwegian non-financial enterprises by industry
Chart 5.8 Credit from selected funding sources to non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.9 Estimated credit risk by industry
Chart 5.10 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.11 House prices
Chart 5.12 Number of unsold existing homes
Chart 5.13 Housing starts, completions and annual change in number of households
Chart 5.14 Real commercial real estate prices
Chart 5.15 Rents in Oslo
Chart 5.16 Yields on office space in Oslo
Chart 5.17 Return on equity for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.18 Decomposed change in the profits of large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.19 Debt-servicing capacity of oil service companies
Chart 5.20 Large Norwegian banks’ Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratios
Chart 5.21 Equity price indexes in the banking sector
Chart 5.22 Credit to Norwegian enterprises from different banking groups
Chart 5.23 Heatmap
Chart 5.24 CISS for Norway
Chart 5.25 CISS for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the euro area
Chart 5.26 Housing affordability by geographic region
Chart 5.27 Housing affordability by geographic region. Median household