http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 1/18
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 1.1d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.3 Money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.4 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.5 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.7 House prices and household debt
Chart 1.8 Interest rates
Chart 1.9 Real interest rate
Chart 1.10 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.11 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.12 Petroleum investment. Annual change
Chart 1.13 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2.1 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.2 PMI for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.3 Policy rates and calculated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.6 Headline and core CPI for Norway's main trading partners
Chart 2.7 Wages in selected countries
Chart 2.8 Indicator of international inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods (IPC)
Chart 2.9 Saving ratio, private consumption and disposable income in the US
Chart 2.10 Unemployment and employment in the euro area
Chart 2.11 Consumer prices and spare capaticity in Sweden
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 EIA projections of annual change in US crude oil production
Chart 3.1 Three-month money market premium
Chart 3.2 Interst rate differences
Chart 3.3 Output percentage change as reported by Regional Network
Chart 3.4 Financial News index
Chart 3.5 GDP for mainland Norway and Regional Network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.6 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 3.7 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.8 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.9 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.10 Households debt ratio, interest burden and debt-service ratio
Chart 3.11 Housing investment and house prices
Chart 3.12 Corporate investment by sector
Chart 3.13 Expected profitability and investment
Chart 3.14 Business investment and GDP
Chart 3.15 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.16 Employment acording to QNA
Chart 3.17 Employment in selected sectors
Chart 3.18 Expected change in employment
Chart 3.19 Job vacancies
Chart 3.20 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 3.21 Alternative labour force participation rates
Chart 3.22 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by Regional Network
Chart 3.23 Model estimated output gap
Chart 3.24 CPI-ATE by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE by goods and services
Chart 3.26 Inflation import goods
Chart 3.27 CPI-ATE in MPR 1/18 with fan chart
Chart 3.28 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations. Annual growth
Chart 3.29 Annual wage growth
Chart 3.30 CPI-ATE. Four-quarter change
Chart 3.31 Indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.32 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.33 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.34 Public sector demand and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.35 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 3.36 Field development projects in billions of NOK
Chart 1 Household bank deposits and debt. Share of disposable income
Chart 2 Effect of a 1 percentage point increase in lending and deposit rates on disposable income
Chart 3 Debt and bank deposits as a share of disposable income
Chart 4 Change in net interest expenses following a 1 percentage point interest rate increase. Share of disposable income
Chart 5 Change in net interest expenses following a 1 percentage point interest rate increase. Share of total after­tax income
Chart 6 Change in net interest expenses following a 1 percentage point interest rate increase. Share of bank deposits
Chart 4.1 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 14 OECD countries
Chart 4.2a Projections for the key policy rate from MPR 4/17
Chart 4.2b CPI-ATE conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 4/17
Chart 4.2c Output gap conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 4/17
Chart 4.3a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.3b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.3c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.3d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.4 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.5 Factors behind the change in key policy forecast since MPR 4/17
Chart 4.6 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 1a Nominal interest rate. Expectations formation
Chart 1b Inflation. Expectations formation
Chart 1c Real interest rate. Expectations formation
Chart 1d Output gap. Expectations formation
Chart 2a Key policy rate
Chart 2b Inflation
Chart 2c Real interest rate
Chart 2d Output gap
Chart 5.1 Non-performing loans in selected EU countries
Chart 5.2 Index of prices for US and European bank shares
Chart 5.3 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.4 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.5 Credit to households and non­financial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.6 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.7 Bank and mortgage company lending to non­financial enterprises
Chart 5.8 Lending to non-financial enterprises in the Norwegian bond market
Chart 5.9 Net debt ratio in listed companies
Chart 5.10 Estimated credit risk by sector
Chart 5.11 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.12 Change in house prices – Norway
Chart 5.13 Change in house prices – Norwegian cities
Chart 5.14 Stock of unsold existing homes
Chart 5.15 Total new home sales
Chart 5.16 Commercial property price indicator and selling prices for prime real estate
Chart 5.17 Yields for the most attractive office premises in Oslo and swap rate
Chart 5.18 Return on equity for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.19 Banks' loan losses
Chart 5.20 CET1 capital ratios and targets for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.21 Methodological change to the calculation of house price statistics - Norway
Chart 5.22 Methodological change to the calculation of house price statistics - large Norwegian cities
Chart 5.23 Stock of unsold homes before and after the methodological change