Norges Bank together with European Central Bank and BI Norwegian Business School organizes a workshop on modelling and forecasting oil prices.

Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan) and Ana Maria Herrera (Wayne State University) are confirmed keynote speakers.

Several experts from central banks (Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank), energy firms (e.g., Statoil), investment banks (e.g., Nordea and Handelsbanken), would also give their contributions.

Organizing committee
Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank
Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Marco Lombardi, European Central Bank

The workshop is open for participation, but we have limited seats, so please register at research@Norges-Bank.no. Participation is free of charge.

Program

Thursday March 22, 2012

08.30 Registration

08.50 Amund Holmsen (Norges Bank): Opening remarks


Session 1. Chair:  Anne Berit Christiansen (Norges Bank).

09.00 Klaus Mohn (Statoil and UiS Business School): Demand vs Depletion: Future oil price fundamentals

09.30 Salvatore Carollo (ENI): The divorce between Brent and oil prices

10.00 Gro Anundskaas (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy): Oil Price volatility – does it matter?

10.30 Coffee break


Session 2. Chair: Caterina Marmorato (ENI)

11.00 Pavlos Karadeloglou (European Central Bank): Oil price forecasting at the ECB

11.30 Simon Price (Bank of England): World oil demand in the short and long run: a cross-country panel analysis

12.00 Pål Winje (Norges Bank): Oil and gas analysis at Norges Bank

12.30 Lunch


Session 3. Chair: Marco Lombardi (European Central Bank)

13.30 Thina Saltvedt (Nordea): Oil price drivers from a commercial player’s perspective

14.00 Roxana Mohammadian-Molina (Barclays): Investment flows in commodities markets and the relationship with prices

14.30 Coffee break

15.00 Panel: Energy prices, macroeconomics and monetary policy.
Moderator: Hilde Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School)
Speakers: Tor Kartevold (Statoil), Knut Anton Mork (Handelsbanken), Pavlos Karadeloglou (European Central Bank), Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)

16.30 Adjourn


Friday March 23, 2012

Session 4. Chair: Øistein Røisland (Norges Bank)

09.00 Christiane Baumeister (Bank of Canada): The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market

09.40 Steve Millard (Bank of England): The impact of oil price shocks on the UK economy

10.20 Marco Lombardi (European Central Bank): Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets

11.00 Coffee break


Session 5. Chair: Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank)

11.30 Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan): Forecasting Oil Prices and Quantifying Oil Price Risks

12.30 Lunch


Session 6. Chair: Farooq Akram (Norges Bank)

13.40 Ana Maria Herrera (Wayne State University): Asymmetries in the Industrial Production - Oil Price Relationship? Evidence from 18 OECD countries

14.20 Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank): What drives oil prices? Emerging vs. Developed economies

15.00 Coffee break

15.30 Michele Modugno (Université Libre de Bruxelles): Nowcasting Inflation using high frequency data

16.10 Closing remarks