Modeling and forecasting oil prices
Oslo, March 22 and 23 2012.
Norges Bank together with European Central Bank and BI Norwegian Business School organizes a workshop on modelling and forecasting oil prices.
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan) and Ana Maria Herrera (Wayne State University) are confirmed keynote speakers.
Several experts from central banks (Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank), energy firms (e.g., Statoil), investment banks (e.g., Nordea and Handelsbanken), would also give their contributions.
Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank
Hilde Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School
Marco Lombardi, European Central Bank
The workshop is open for participation, but we have limited seats, so please register at research@Norges-Bank.no. Participation is free of charge.
Thursday March 22, 2012
08.50 Amund Holmsen (Norges Bank): Opening remarks
Session 1. Chair: Anne Berit Christiansen (Norges Bank).
09.00 Klaus Mohn (Statoil and UiS Business School): Demand vs Depletion: Future oil price fundamentals
09.30 Salvatore Carollo (ENI): The divorce between Brent and oil prices
10.00 Gro Anundskaas (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy): Oil Price volatility – does it matter?
10.30 Coffee break
Session 2. Chair: Caterina Marmorato (ENI)
11.00 Pavlos Karadeloglou (European Central Bank): Oil price forecasting at the ECB
11.30 Simon Price (Bank of England): World oil demand in the short and long run: a cross-country panel analysis
12.00 Pål Winje (Norges Bank): Oil and gas analysis at Norges Bank
Session 3. Chair: Marco Lombardi (European Central Bank)
13.30 Thina Saltvedt (Nordea): Oil price drivers from a commercial player’s perspective
14.00 Roxana Mohammadian-Molina (Barclays): Investment flows in commodities markets and the relationship with prices
14.30 Coffee break
15.00 Panel: Energy prices, macroeconomics and monetary policy.
Moderator: Hilde Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School)
Speakers: Tor Kartevold (Statoil), Knut Anton Mork (Handelsbanken), Pavlos Karadeloglou (European Central Bank), Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
Friday March 23, 2012
Session 4. Chair: Øistein Røisland (Norges Bank)
09.00 Christiane Baumeister (Bank of Canada): The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market
09.40 Steve Millard (Bank of England): The impact of oil price shocks on the UK economy
10.20 Marco Lombardi (European Central Bank): Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets
11.00 Coffee break
Session 5. Chair: Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank)
11.30 Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan): Forecasting Oil Prices and Quantifying Oil Price Risks
Session 6. Chair: Farooq Akram (Norges Bank)
13.40 Ana Maria Herrera (Wayne State University): Asymmetries in the Industrial Production - Oil Price Relationship? Evidence from 18 OECD countries
14.20 Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank): What drives oil prices? Emerging vs. Developed economies
15.00 Coffee break
15.30 Michele Modugno (Université Libre de Bruxelles): Nowcasting Inflation using high frequency data
16.10 Closing remarks