Norges Bank

Working Paper

An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies

Author:
Steinar Holden, Gisle James Natvik and Adrien Vigier
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
23/2012

Abstract
We develop a model of credit rating agencies (CRAs) based on reputation concerns. Ratings affect investors' choice and, thereby, also issuers' access to funding and default risk. We show that - in equilibrium - the informational content of credit ratings is inferior to that of CRAs' private information. We find that CRAs have a pro-cyclical impact on default risk: in a liquidity boom CRAs help resolve investors' coordination problem, and lower the probability of default; in a liquidity crunch CRAs raise the probability of default. Furthermore, rating standards tend to be pro-cyclical, while biased CRA-incentives will ultimately be selfdefeating.

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 19 December 2012 09:30
Published 19 December 2012 09:30