Norges Bank

Bicentenary project, Working Paper

The historical connection between short term output and prices in a small open economy

Author:
by Ola Grytten and Arngrim Hunnes
Series:
Working Paper
Number:
21/2009

Abstract

According to a Keynesian view, short term output fluctuations are normally demand side led. Since prices reflect demand, they should mirror output fluctuations. Thus, prices and output are expected to move in the same direction in the short run. The present paper investigates the historical co-movements of output and prices for a small open raw material based economy, in this case Norway 1830-2006. We find little evidence of a positive relationship. On the contrary, we rather find negative correlations between the two variables, indicating that supply side shocks through the foreign sector were more important for historical business cycles in Norway than assumed hitherto.

 

 

Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports that are generally not in their final form. Other analyses by Norges Bank’s economists are also included in the series. The views and conclusions in these documents are those of the authors.

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ISSN 1502-8190 (online)

Published 6 November 2009 10:45
Published 6 November 2009 10:45