Estimating forward Nibor premiums
- Erlend Hellum and Geir-Are Ø. Kårvik
- Economic Commentaries
The premium in the money market shows the difference between an unsecured money market rate and the expected key rate for the same time horizon. Since the financial crisis in autumn 2008, money market premiums have been higher than prior to the crisis and have varied to considerably greater extent. The premium influences the relationship between the key rate and the money market rate. In the work on projections for Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projects Nibor premiums over the years ahead. Market participants’ pricing of forward premiums in money market rates serves as a natural basis. This Commentary takes a closer look at how market prices can be used to project the premium in Nibor ahead.
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