Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Charting the upstream: An indicator for imported input goods prices

Serie:
Staff Memo
Nummer:
5/2024

Abstract

This Staff Memo presents an indicator used for monitoring and forecasting inflation at Norges Bank. The indicator is designed to capture international price impulses that impact the input costs of domestic firms. Our analysis indicates that the marked increase in the cost of imported intermediate goods over the last couple of years can account for parts of the rise in Norwegian CPI-inflation in the same period. The results suggest that changes to the price of products at early stages in the production chain can lead to changes in CPI, also making the indicator useful for forecasting.

Staff Memo inneholder utredninger og dokumentasjon skrevet av Norges Banks ansatte og andre forfattere tilknyttet Norges Bank. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene er ikke nødvendigvis representative for Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Publisert 25. oktober 2024 13:23
Publisert 25. oktober 2024 13:23