Staff Memo

Evaluating real-time forecasts from Norges Bank’s system for averaging models

Author: Anne Sofie Jore
Series: Staff Memo
Number: 12/2012


We evaluate forecasts of GDP growth and inflation made by the system of averaging models (SAM) and compare their performance with Norges Bank's forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. We assess the new version of SAM, as well as the ones that were actually used from 2008 until the end of 2010. We conclude that SAM forecasts perform quite well. In particular for inflation, the forecasting performance seems to have improved with the new version of SAM.

Published 11 April 2012 13:26