NBIM Quarterly Performance Report First quarter 2006

Oslo, 23 May 2006
Norges Bank Investment Management

Government Pension Fund - Global
Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves
- Investment portfolio
- Buffer portfolio
Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

Contents

  1. Introduction and key figures
  2. Market developments
  3. Government Pension Fund - Global
  4. Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves
    • Investment portfolio
    • Buffer portfolio
  5. Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

Appendices:

  • Accounting reports
  • Mandate and benchmark portfolio
  • Methodology for the calculation of transaction costs
  • Definition of market risk
  • Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
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1. Introduction and key figures

1.1 Rising equity prices

Global equity prices continued to grow strongly in the first quarter of 2006. This applied particularly to emerging markets and the European equity markets. The greatest gains were made by companies in the process industry and other industrial production, and companies involved in the production of metals, oil and gas. Bond prices in the main markets trended downwards during the quarter.

The increase in equity prices contributed to relatively high returns on the two largest portfolios managed by NBIM. The highest return was achieved on the Government Pension Fund - Global at 2.24 per cent measured in international currency. The return on the investment portfolio in Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves was 1.62 per cent, and the return on the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund was -0.71 per cent.

The equity markets have performed strongly over the last three years. Since the beginning of 2003, an index of equities in 24 emerging markets has risen by almost 175 per cent. In Japan, Europe and the US, the increase during the period has been 112, 75 and 55 per cent respectively (see Chart 1-1).

Chart 1-1: Movements in equity prices since 1 January 2003

Chart 1-2 shows returns on the bond markets measured as the change in the Lehman Global Aggregate government bond indices since 1 January 2003. The indices for Europe, America and Asia/Oceania rose by 13.9, 7.8 and 2.1 per cent respectively during the period.

Chart 1-2: Movements in the bond markets since 1 January 2003

Return of 2.24 per cent on the Government Pension Fund - Global

The return on the Government Pension Fund - Global in the first quarter of 2006 was 2.24 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket corresponding to the composition of the fund's benchmark portfolio. The return on the equity portfolio was 7.17 per cent, and the return on the fixed income portfolio was -1.13 per cent. The return on the Pension Fund's portfolio was 0.20 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark portfolio defined by the Ministry of Finance. The market value of the portfolio at the end of the quarter was NOK 1,483.9 billion.

Return of 1.62 per cent on the investment portfolio

The return on the investment portfolio in Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2006 was 1.62 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket corresponding to the composition of the portfolio's benchmark portfolio. The return on the equity portfolio was 6.81 per cent, and the return on the fixed income portfolio was -1.13 per cent. The return on the investment portfolio was 0.08 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark portfolio defined by Norges Bank's Executive Board. The market value of the portfolio at the end of the quarter was NOK 212.7 billion.

Return of -0.71 per cent on the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

The return on the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund in the first quarter of 2006 was -0.71 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket corresponding to the composition of the fund's benchmark portfolio. The return on the Petroleum Insurance Fund's portfolio was the same as the return on the benchmark portfolio defined by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. The market value of the portfolio at the end of the quarter was NOK 13.8 billion.

1.2 Total assets under management NOK 1,715 billion

Assets under the management by NBIM grew by NOK 66 billion during the first quarter. NOK 35 billion of this was due to investment returns. Transfers of new capital totalled NOK 64 billion, while a stronger krone in relation to the investment currencies reduced the market value of the assets by NOK 33 billion. Assets under management totalled NOK 1,715 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2006 (see Table 1-1).

Table 1-1: Return in the first quarter and market value on 31 March 2006

Return in currency

Return in NOK

NOK

 

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Excess return

Market value in billions

Government Pension Fund - Global

2.24

2.04

0.25

0.06

0.20

1 484

Investment portfolio

1.62

1.54

-0.37

-0.45

0.08

213

Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

-0.71

-0.72

-2.38

-2.39

0.00

14

Total






1 7151

Chart 1-3 shows growth in total assets under management since the end of 1999.

Chart 1-3: Growth in assets under management. In billions of NOK

1.3 NBIM generated an excess return of NOK 3.0 billion

NBIM's management is measured against benchmark portfolios defined by its clients. One important goal for its management is to generate a higher return over time on the actual portfolios than on the benchmark portfolios. In the first quarter, the aggregate excess return on the portfolios managed by NBIM was NOK 3.0 billion.

Chart 1-4 shows the cumulative excess return since the formation of NBIM in January 1998. The aggregate excess return during the period is NOK 31.3 billion. This breaks down into NOK 29.2 billion on the Government Pension Fund - Global, NOK 2.0 billion on the investment portfolio, and NOK 0.1 billion on the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund.

Chart 1-4: Cumulative gross excess return from 1 January 1998 to 31 March 2006. In millions of NOK

Table 1-2 provides an overview of risks and returns since 1 January 1998 for the portfolios managed by NBIM.

Table 1-2: Risks and returns to 31 March 2006. Annualised


Last 12 months

Last 3 years

Last 5 years

Since 01.01.98

Return/excess return2





Pension Fund

11.50

10.91

2.69

5.77

Benchmark portfolio

10.35

10.19

2.13

5.24

Excess return

1.15

0.72

0.57

0.53

Investment portfolio

9.05

7.73

3.17

5.53

Benchmark portfolio

8.74

7.43

2.86

5.32

Excess return

0.31

0.30

0.31

0.21

Insurance Fund

1.82

3.83

4.20

3.29

Benchmark portfolio

1.72

3.69

4.06

3.21

Excess return

0.10

0.14

0.14

0.08

Standard deviation3

 

 

 

 

Pension Fund

6.84

8.72

8.99

8.44

Investment portfolio

6.25

8.12

7.30

6.91

Insurance Fund

5.10

7.48

6.62

6.32

Tracking error4

 

 

 

 

Pension Fund

0.41

0.31

0.30

0.38

Investment portfolio

0.08

0.16

0.18

0.23

Insurance Fund

0.05

0.07

0.08

0.16

Information ratio (IR)5

 

 

 

 

Pension Fund

2.58

2.14

1.89

1.34

Investment portfolio

3.42

1.78

1.70

0.85

Insurance Fund

2.14

1.98

1.80

0.50

2. Market developments

Fixed income markets

Bond yields in the main markets trended upwards during the first quarter. Ten-year government bond yields rose by about 0.45 percentage point in the US and the euro area, and by about 0.30 percentage point in the UK and Japan (see Chart 2-1). Over the last 12 months, yields have risen furthest in Japan, while long-term yields in the UK have fallen slightly over the period as a whole.

Chart 2-1: Movements in the most important bond markets over the last 12 months. Yields on government bonds with approximately ten years to maturity. Per cent per year

There was continued strong growth in the global economy during the first quarter. Global growth has been driven particularly by the upswing in the US and parts of Asia, but recent months have brought clear signs that economic growth in both Europe and Japan is in the process of picking up.

Growth in the US accelerated at the beginning of 2006 after a weak fourth quarter of 2005. Companies in several industrial sectors reported good results, which were linked to high margins and favourable financing terms. This positive trend has contributed to an increase in investment and optimism in many sectors. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by a total of 50 basis points to 4.75 per cent during the first quarter. The yield curve was inverted at times during the quarter, which has historically signalled an impending slowdown. However, there are few other indications of this. Strong demand for long-term bonds from pension funds and central banks in Asia has helped to keep long-term yields low. Although raw material prices increased during the quarter, the impact on core inflation has been very limited to date.

Economic growth has also picked up in Japan in recent quarters. Increased domestic consumption and growth in the export sector have contributed to the upswing. Companies are generally showing good profitability, and employment is rising. There is much to suggest that the period of deflation in Japan is over, and there are expectations that the Bank of Japan will phase out its zero interest rate policy.

There are also signs of growth picking up in the euro zone after a weak period. Strong global growth and a weaker euro have contributed to good growth in the export sector, and low interest rates have contributed to an increase in investment. There has also been a slight rise in employment recently. The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent during the quarter.

Chart 2-2: Movements in Lehman Global Aggregate government bond indices in the main markets during the last 12 months (31.12.05=100)

Chart 2-2 shows movements in the Lehman Global Aggregate government bond indices in the main markets over the last 12 months. The first quarter of 2006 brought returns of -1.9 per cent in Europe, -0.6 per cent in Asia, and -1.2 per cent in the US.

The spread between yields on corporate and government securities (credit spread) is extremely low, and fell further during the quarter. Volatility in the credit markets was low, and there was little company-specific news impacting on yield spreads. The global default rate (defaulted bonds as a percentage of the total volume outstanding) fell further during the quarter.

Many companies have reported good earnings in recent quarters, which has helped to strengthen equity and reduce debt. The downward pressure on credit spreads is therefore coming both from the supply side through a reduced supply of bonds, and from the demand side as a result of high liquidity and low defaults.

Chart 2-3 shows movements in the spread between corporate bonds with a good credit rating and government bonds in the US.

Chart 2-3: Spread between yields on corporate securities6and government securities in the US. Basis points

Equity markets

Prices in the most important equity markets rose during the first quarter (see Chart 2-4). The increase was greatest in Europe and emerging markets. The FTSE indices for Europe, Japan and the US gained 9.4, 6.7 and 4.3 per cent respectively. An index of equities in 24 emerging markets rose by 11.8 per cent.

Chart 2-4: Movements in the FTSE equity indices for the main markets over the last 12 months (31.12.05=100). In local currencies

Strong economic growth globally and good earnings at many listed companies fuelled the growth in equity prices during the first quarter. More than 65 per cent of the largest US companies (S&P 500) reported better earnings than expected. High oil prices and rising prices for a number of metals also contributed to the upward revision of earnings expectations and growth in the share prices of raw material and energy companies.

Despite lower economic growth in Europe, prices rose further in the European equity markets than in the US. Earnings growth was higher at European companies than at US companies, and reported earnings surprised analysts on the upside to a greater extent than in the US. Stable interest rates in Europe during the period, as opposed to rising interest rates in the US, also contributed to the relatively strong growth in equity prices in Europe.

In addition, increased globalisation has helped to reduce the correlation between earnings growth at listed companies and economic growth in their home countries.

Table 2-1: Return on the main sectors and the ten largest sub-sectors of the FTSE All-World Index in the first quarter of 2006. Measured against USD, NOK and the benchmark portfolio's currency basket. Per cent


USD

NOK

Currency basket

Oil & Gas

9.41

6.04

8.14

Oil & Gas Producers

8.81

5.46

7.55

Basic Materials

13.89

10.39

12.58

Industrials

9.52

6.15

8.25

Consumer Goods

6.58

3.30

5.35

Health Care

2.90

-0.27

1.71

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

4.05

0.85

2.84

Consumer Services

3.63

0.44

2.43

General Retailers

2.44

-0.71

1.25

Media

3.65

0.46

2.45

Telecommunications

6.34

3.07

5.11

Fixed Line Telecommunications

7.02

3.73

5.78

Utilities

7.17

3.87

5.93

Financials

8.49

5.15

7.23

Banks

8.71

5.36

7.45

Nonlife Insurance

2.70

-0.46

1.51

General Financial

9.91

6.53

8.64

Technology

4.84

1.62

3.63

Software & Computer Services

2.60

-0.56

1.41

Hardware & Equipment

6.11

2.85

4.88

Total7

7.27

3.96

6.02

Table 2-1 shows equity price movements in the main sectors and the ten largest sub-sectors of the FTSE All-World Index in the first quarter of 2006. The Basic Materials, Industrials and Oil & Gas sectors made the greatest gains. Companies in the Health Care sector performed worst.

3. Government Pension Fund - Global

Key figures for the first quarter of 2006

  • Market value NOK 1,483.9 billion on 31 March
  • Return of 2.24 per cent in international currency
  • Return of 7.17 per cent on the equity portfolio
  • Return of -1.13 per cent on the fixed income portfolio
  • Excess return 0.20 percentage point
  • Annualised management costs (excluding performance-based fees) 0.07 per cent of assets under management
  • Transfers of new capital NOK 82.4 billion
  • Four new external equity mandates
  • One new external fixed income mandate

The fund's market value

The fund's market value was NOK 1,483.9 billion at the end of the first quarter, an increase of NOK 84.9 billion since the beginning of the year. The increase in market value is the result of a positive return of NOK 31.6 billion measured in international currency, and transfers of new capital of NOK 82.4 billion, while a stronger krone in relation to the investment currencies reduced the value of the fund by NOK 29.1 billion. A change in the krone exchange rate has no effect, however, on the fund's international purchasing power.

Table 3-1 shows the market value of the portfolio at the end of the last five quarters, and the change in market value in the first quarter of 2006 due to transfers of new capital, the return on the portfolio in international currency, and changes in the international value of the krone. For the accounting values, see Tables 1 and 2 in Appendix 1.1.

Table 3-1: Changes in the fund's market value over the last 12 months. In millions of NOK


Equity management

Fixed income management

Total

31 March 2005

435 467

654 674

1 090 141

30 June 2005

472 436

711 491

1 183 927

30 September 2005

522 691

758 454

1 281 145

31 December 2005

582 305

816 746

1 399 050

Transfers of new capital

-4 968

87 334

82 366

Return

41 311

-9 674

31 637

Change in krone value

- 11 758

- 17 387

- 29 144

31 March 2006

606 890

877 019

1 483 909

The fund has grown by NOK 394 billion in the last 12 months (see Chart 3-1). NOK 257 billion has been transferred to the fund, the return on the fund has been NOK 148 billion, and a stronger krone in relation to the investment currencies has reduced the value of the fund by NOK 11 billion. The chart shows that a weaker krone increased the value of the fund in the fourth quarter of 2005, while movements in the krone so far this year have reduced the value of the fund.

Chart 3-1: Quarterly change in the market value of the fund over the last 12 months. In billions of NOK

Since 1 January 1998, the fund has grown by NOK 1,371 billion (see Chart 3-2). NOK 1,129 billion has been transferred to the fund during the period. The return on the fund measured in international currency has increased the value of the fund by NOK 337 billion, whereas a stronger krone in relation to the investment currencies has reduced the value of the fund by NOK 95 billion.

Chart 3-2: Market value of the Government Pension Fund - Global 1998-2006. In billions of NOK

Return on the fund

The return on the fund in the first quarter of 2006 was 2.24 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket corresponding to the composition of the fund's benchmark portfolio. There was a positive return in each of the three months in the quarter. The return on the equity portfolio was 7.17 per cent. Prices rose on all of the main markets during the quarter. The fixed income portfolio generated a return of -1.13 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket. Prices trended downwards in the largest bond markets.

Measured in NOK, the aggregate return in the first quarter was 0.25 per cent. The difference is due to the approximately 2.0 per cent appreciation of the krone against the currencies in the benchmark portfolio during the quarter. Table 3-2 shows the monthly return measured in terms of the benchmark portfolio's currency basket and in NOK, while Table 3-3 shows the return in the first quarter measured in various currencies.

Table 3-2: Return on the fund in the first quarter of 2006. Per cent

 

Return measured in terms of the benchmark currency basket

Return measured in NOK

 

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Excess return

January

1.42

1.21

1.56

1.36

0.21

February

0.33

0.42

0.82

0.91

-0.09

March

0.47

0.39

-2.09

-2.17

0.08

Q1

2.24

2.04

0.25

0.06

0.20

Table 3-3: Return in the first quarter of 2006 measured in different currencies. Per cent


Equities

Fixed income

Total

Fund's currency basket

7.17

-1.13

2.24

Import-weighted currency basket

6.03

-2.17

1.16

USD

8.42

0.03

3.44

EUR

5.68

-2.50

0.82

NOK

5.08

-3.05

0.25

The return achieved by Norges Bank on the actual portfolio is measured in relation to the return on the benchmark portfolio defined by the Ministry of Finance. The difference between the return figures is the gross excess return achieved by Norges Bank. During the first quarter, the excess return on the fund was 0.20 percentage point in relation to the benchmark portfolio, or approximately NOK 2.8 billion. The main contribution to this excess return came from internal equity and fixed income management, but there were also positive contributions from both external fixed income and external equity management.

Over the last 12 months, the cumulative excess return has been 1.15 percentage point. During the three years to the end of the first quarter of 2006, the annualised excess return was 0.72 percentage point (see Chart 3-3).

Chart 3-3: Monthly (right-hand scale) and three-year rolling excess return (left-hand scale). Per cent

Transaction costs are incurred when new capital is phased in. Norges Bank has estimated the direct and indirect transaction costs associated with phasing in new capital in the first quarter of 2006 at NOK 113.2 million. This was 0.14 per cent of the total amount transferred, i.e. NOK 82.4 billion, and 0.01 per cent of the market value of the fund at the beginning of the quarter. The benchmark portfolio has not been adjusted for these transaction costs. This means that the excess return reported is lower than it would have been if the costs associated with phasing in new capital had been excluded. See Appendix 3 for a discussion of the methodology underlying the calculations, and the article Phasing-in costs in the Petroleum Fund published in April 2005 in connection with the 2004 annual report for a discussion of phasing-in costs in the fund.

Chart 3-4: Quarterly return on the fund measured in terms of the benchmark portfolio's currency basket. Per cent

Since the first equity investments were made in 1998, the average quarterly return measured in terms of the benchmark portfolio's currency basket has been 1.54 per cent. Chart 3-4 shows the quarterly returns.

Since 1997, the fund has generated an annualised annual gross return of 6.4 per cent. Once management costs and inflation are deducted, the annual net real return is 4.5 per cent. Table 3-4 shows the annualised return up to the end of the first quarter of 2006 since 1 January in each of the years from 1997 to 2006. The right-hand column in the table shows that the gross excess return has averaged 0.50 percentage point per year since 1 January 1997.

Table 3-4: Annual rates of return on the fund up to the end of the first quarter of 2006 measured in terms of the benchmark portfolio's currency basket. Per cent per year


Gross annual return

Annual inflation8

Annual management costs

Annual net real return

Annual gross excess return

Since 01.01.97

6.42

1.71

0.09

4.54

0.50

Since 01.01.98

6.10

1.71

0.09

4.23

0.53

Since 01.01.99

5.67

1.81

0.09

3.69

0.57

Since 01.01.00

4.63

1.90

0.10

2.58

0.47

Since 01.01.01

5.04

1.88

0.10

3.00

0.51

Since 01.01.02

6.88

2.05

0.10

4.64

0.60

Since 01.01.03

10.74

2.09

0.10

8.37

0.74

Since 01.01.04

9.93

2.32

0.10

7.34

0.80

Since 01.01.05

10.73

2.28

0.11

8.15

1.03

Chart 3-5: Index for cumulative return 1998-2006

The cumulative return on the fund from 1 January 1998 until the end of the first quarter of 2006 was 63.0 per cent (see Chart 3-5). During this period, the cumulative return on the equity portfolio was 68.6 per cent, and the cumulative return on the fixed income portfolio was 55.3 per cent. However, this difference in returns does not provide an accurate picture of the profitability of the two asset classes. The fund invested substantial amounts in both the equity and the bond markets during the period. The market value of its equity holdings at the end of the quarter was 40.8 per cent higher than the average purchase price. The equivalent figure for the fund's bond holdings was 15.8 per cent. Thus equity investments have been more profitable than Chart 3-5 would suggest.

Since 1998, the cumulative return on the benchmark portfolio has been 56.3 per cent, whereas the actual return has been 63.0 per cent (see Chart 3-6). The cumulative gross excess return measured in terms of the currency basket has been 6.6 percentage points, or NOK 29.2 billion.

Chart 3-6: Index for cumulative actual return and benchmark return measured in terms of the currency basket (left-hand scale) and quarterly gross excess return in percentage points (right-hand scale)

Internal and external management

At the end of the first quarter, 21 per cent of the fund was managed by external investment managers. Costs associated with external management accounted for 64 per cent of total management costs. External management accounted for approximately 65 per cent of the overall risk associated with active management (see Chart 3-7).

The external managers are primarily engaged in active management, whereas a larger part of the internal management is based on enhanced indexing. Active management is clearly more expensive than index management, and this partly explains why unit costs for external management are far higher than those for internal management. Management costs for external and internal management during the first quarter amounted to 0.33 and 0.05 per cent respectively of assets under management. External managers with specialist expertise are used to achieve sufficient breadth and scope in active management, and the excess return from external managers has clearly exceeded the additional costs.

Chart 3-7: Distribution of portfolio, management costs and active risk9between internal and external management. Per cent

Fixed income management

The market value of the portfolio increased by NOK 60.3 billion to NOK 877.0 billion in the first quarter. NOK 87.3 billion was transferred to the portfolio during the period. A negative return on investment and a stronger krone reduced the value of the portfolio by a total of NOK 27.0 billion. At the end of the quarter, about 90 per cent of the portfolio was managed internally by Norges Bank.

There are two main types of management. One is indexing and active management directly related to the indexing task. The objective of this enhanced indexing is to maintain a portfolio that is very close to the benchmark, while taking advantage of special pricing situations to achieve an excess return. Three sub-portfolios are indexed: government guaranteed bonds, corporate bonds and securitised bonds. The three sub-portfolios are indexed internally, with the exception of mortgage-backed bonds in the US, which are managed externally.

Active management follows an investment philosophy based on specialisation and delegation of decisions, and is performed by both internal and external managers. To achieve the aim of specialisation, a group structure has been established where each group is tasked with a limited investment universe.

About 10 per cent of the portfolio is managed by external managers. Besides the mandates for US securitized bonds, this portion includes active mandates with a variety of strategies for outperforming the benchmark. The choice of external managers is viewed as an investment decision where different mandates are allocated capital or phased out on the basis of analyses of liquidity and expected future excess returns.

Capital was transferred to one new mandate assigned to an external manager in the first quarter of 2006: Delaware Investment Advisers was awarded a specialist mandate in the US.

Equity management

The market value of the equity portfolio was NOK 606.9 billion at the end of the first quarter, an increase of NOK 24.6 billion during the period. NOK 5.0 billion was transferred from the equity portfolio to the fixed income portfolio during the quarter. A positive return on investment increased the value of the portfolio by NOK 41.3 billion, while a stronger krone reduced its value by NOK 11.7 billion.

At the end of the quarter, more than 60 per cent of the portfolio was managed internally at Norges Bank in an enhanced indexing portfolio. Other internal active management has been built up gradually in recent years, and consists of portfolio managers focusing both on fundamental analysis-based stock-picking in the financial, telecommunication, energy, media and trade sectors globally, and on relative value strategies. All managers operate within a long-short portfolio. This means that each manager borrows equities from the internal index portfolio or in the market. Thus there is further specialisation between active strategies and indexing and financing internally. Nor does Norges Bank have to choose between internal and external active management, as the internal active positions do not lay claim to the assets under management.

About 40 per cent of the portfolio is managed by external managers. All of the external equity mandates have defined their own benchmark portfolios and risk limits. The regional mandates have benchmark portfolios consisting of the companies included in the FTSE index for a geographical region, such as Continental Europe, the UK, the US and Japan. The sector mandates have benchmark portfolios in sectors such as finance, technology, health care, oil and gas, utilities, trade, media and telecommunications. Over the last couple of years, Norges Bank has increased the proportion of specialist sector mandates.

Capital was transferred to four new mandates assigned to external equity managers in the first quarter of 2006: Jupiter Asset Management Ltd and Tradewinds NWQ Global Investors LLC were awarded sector mandates, and Intrinsic Value Investors (IVI) LLP and Dalton Capital (Guernsey) Ltd were awarded regional mandates.

Market risk

The Fund's absolute market risk, measured as the expected tracking error for the return in NOK, fluctuates with market volatility. Chart 3-8 shows that the absolute tracking error for the equity portfolio at the end of the first quarter of 2006 was roughly one-third of the level measured in the fourth quarter of 2002. Changes in the market risk associated with the fixed income portfolio have been less dramatic.

Chart 3-8: Absolute tracking error at each month-end. Per cent. Measured in NOK

The Ministry of Finance has set a limit on the extent to which the fund's portfolio may differ from the benchmark portfolio. This has been accomplished by setting a limit for the expected deviation between the returns on the actual portfolio and the benchmark portfolio. This limit for relative market risk in the management of the portfolio has been defined as 1.5 percentage point expected tracking error (see Appendix 4).

Expected tracking error can vary widely even with an unchanged level of active management. This is because these measures are influenced by various market developments, such as changes in market volatility and changes in correlations between the various asset classes and securities.

Deviations from the benchmark portfolio did not push expected tracking error above about 35 basis points during the first quarter of 2006. The red line in Chart 3-9 shows developments in expected tracking error since December 1998. In retrospect, we can use the variation in the deviation between the returns on the actual and benchmark portfolios (i.e. the variation in excess return) as a measure of actual relative market risk (the blue line in the chart). This tracking error is annualised using 12-month rolling windows.

Chart 3-9: Expected tracking error and actual tracking error. Basis points

Norges Bank tests whether the actual excess return on the fund varies in line with what might be expected based on the risk model used. This is illustrated in Chart 3-10. The chart shows the realised monthly excess return from October 2002 (diamonds) and the confidence interval measured by the standard deviation. The model indicates that in approximately 67 per cent of cases, the actual return should be within the interval formed by the green lines. The equivalent figures for the orange and red intervals are 95 and 99 per cent respectively. The chart indicates that the actual return is in line with what might be expected based on the risk model used. Analyses of longer time series give similar results.

Chart 3-10: Confidence interval for risk and realised excess return. Basis points

Chart 3-11 shows developments in expected tracking error in the equity and fixed income portfolios over the last 12 months. Relative market risk is higher in equity management than in fixed income management.

Chart 3-11: Expected tracking error at each month-end over the last 12 months. Basis points. Measured in NOK

Information ratio

The information ratio is a measure of skill in active management. It is the ratio of gross excess return for the year to relative market risk (measured here as the actual standard deviation of the gross excess return). The average information ratio for the fund from the first quarter of 1998 to the first quarter of 2006 was 1.34, annualised. Table 3-5 provides a historical overview of the information ratio for the fund as a whole and for each asset class.

Table 3-5: Information ratios

Period

Fund

Equities

Fixed income

Last 12 months

2.58

2.22

2.28

Since 2002

1.95

1.26

3.30

Since 1999

1.46

1.21

2.01

Guidelines for management

Through the Regulation on the Management of the Government Pension Fund - Global and guidelines for investments, the Ministry of Finance has set limits for risk and exposure. These limits and the portfolio's actual exposure are shown in Table 3-6. There were no significant breaches of the investment guidelines during the quarter. There was one minor breach when an external manager purchased shares in an unlisted company. The breach was quickly detected, and the manager closed the position immediately.

Table 3-6: Risk and exposure limits stipulated in the regulation and guidelines


Risk

Limits

Actual

 

 

 

31.03.05

30.06.05

30.09.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

§ 5

Market risk

Maximum tracking error 1.5 percentage point

0.30

0.25

0.29

0.33

0.34

§ 4

Asset mix

Fixed income 50-70%

60.1

60.1

59.2

58.4

59.1

 

 

Equities 30-50%

39.9

39.9

40.8

41.6

40.9

§ 4

Market distribution, equities

Europe 40-60%

49.4

47.7

47.7

47.3

48.5

 

 

Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania 40-60%

50.6

52.3

52.3

52.7

51.5

 

Currency distribution, fixed income

Europe 45-65%

54.4

54.7

54.5

55.1

55.5



Americas and Africa 25-45%

35.7

35.1

35.3

34.8

34.2

 

 

Asia and Oceania 0-20%

9.9

10.2

10.2

10.1

10.4

§ 6

Ownership stake

Maximum 5% of a company

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.7

3.9

Table 3-7 shows the composition of the bond portfolio (fixed income portfolio excluding cash) based on credit ratings from Moody's and S&P. In the table, government securities and government guaranteed bonds without credit ratings have been given the credit rating of the issuing country. In addition to bonds, the fixed income portfolio contains fixed income instruments with shorter maturities. These all have credit ratings of P-1 from Moody's and A-1 from S&P.

Table 3-7: The bond portfolio at 31 March 2006 by credit rating. Percentage of market value

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Rating

Percentage of total

Rating

Percentage of total

Aaa

47,25

AAA

44,96

Aa

17.43

AA

22.60

A

22.78

A

15.00

Baa

7.74

BBB

8.49

Ba

0.39

BB

0.50

Lower

0.04

Lower

0.07

No rating

4.37

No rating

8.38

Costs

The Management Agreement between the Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank establishes the principles for Norges Bank's remuneration for managing the fund's portfolios. For 2006, this remuneration is to cover the Bank's actual costs, provided that these costs are less than 0.10 per cent of the fund's average market value. Fees to external managers for excess return achieved are also covered. Norges Bank has entered into agreements concerning performance-based fees with the majority of external active managers in accordance with principles approved by the Ministry of Finance.

In addition to the Pension Fund, NBIM manages the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund and the bulk of Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves. Fees to external managers and external settlement and custodian institutions are invoiced separately for each fund. The other operating costs are overheads shared by all the funds managed by NBIM. These shared overheads are distributed between the three funds using a cost distribution key. The shared overheads also include the cost of support functions provided by other parts of Norges Bank. These latter costs are calculated in accordance with the guidelines that apply to business operations at Norges Bank.

Annualised, costs in the first quarter of 2006 amounted to 0.11 per cent of the average market value of the fund (see Table 3-8). Excluding performance-based fees to external managers, costs amounted to 0.07 per cent of the market value of the fund. By way of comparison, costs in the first quarter of 2005 amounted to 0.08 per cent of market value. For internal management, there was a slight decrease in the ratio of costs to assets under management from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006. For external management, the ratio increased, due mainly to a rise in performance-based fees to external managers.

Table 3-8: Management costs in the first quarter of 2006. In thousands of NOK and as a percentage of the average portfolio


Q1 2006

Q1 2005


NOK 1000

Per cent

NOK 1000

Per cent

Internal costs, equity management

51 866


41 991


Custodian and fund administration costs

23 870


12 835


Total costs, internal equity management

75 736

0.08

54 826

0.09

Internal costs, fixed income management

43 968


42 984


Custodian and fund administration costs

18 262


8 854


Total costs, internal fixed income management

62 230

0.03

51 838

0.04

Minimum fees to external managers

87 929


79 127


Performance-based fees to external managers

131 406


63 678


Other costs, external management

28 284


28 894


Total costs, external management

247 619

0.33

171 699

0.29

Total management costs

385 585

0.11

278 363

0.11

Total management costs excluding performance-based fees

254 179

0.07

214 685

0.08

Costs are distributed between internal and external management using a cost distribution key for internal costs and custodian costs. External management accounted for approximately 64 per cent of costs, whereas only about 21 per cent of the fund's portfolio is managed externally. The unit cost of internal management was approximately 0.05 per cent, compared with 0.33 per cent for external management.

4. Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves

Key figures for the first quarter of 2006

Investment portfolio

  • Market value NOK 212.7 billion on 31 March
  • Return of 1.62 per cent in international currency
  • Return of 6.81 per cent on the equity portfolio
  • Return of -1.13 per cent on the fixed income portfolio
  • Excess return 0.08 percentage point
  • Equity portion raised to 39 per cent
  • NOK 2 billion transferred from money market portfolio
  • Two new external management mandates

Buffer portfolio

  • NOK 82.4 billion transferred to the Government Pension Fund - Global
  • NOK 46.1 billion transferred from the State's Direct Financial Interest in petroleum activities (SDFI)
  • NOK 16.2 billion transferred from Norges Bank's own foreign exchange purchases
  • Market value NOK 4.3 billion on 31 March
  • Return of -0.1 per cent measured in NOK

The investment portfolio's market value

The investment portfolio's market value was NOK 212.7 billion at the end of the first quarter, an increase of NOK 1.2 billion since the beginning of the year. The increase in market value during the quarter was due to a positive return of NOK 3.4 billion measured in international currency, and transfers of NOK 2.0 billion from the money market portfolio, while a stronger krone in relation to the investment currencies reduced the value of the portfolio by NOK 4.2 billion. A change in the krone exchange rate has no effect, however, on the portfolio's international purchasing power.

Table 4-1 shows the market value of the portfolio at the end of the last five quarters, and the change in market value in the first quarter of 2006 due to transfers of new capital, the return on the portfolio in international currency, and changes in the international value of the krone.

Table 4-1: Market value of the investment portfolio over the last 12 months, and changes in market value in the first quarter of 2006. In millions of NOK


Equity management

Fixed income management

Total

31 March 2005

58 232

132 761

190 993

30 June 2005

61 529

137 989

199 519

30 September 2005

66 005

137 209

203 213

31 December 2005

70 669

140 817

211 486

Transfers of new capital

9 503

-7 500

2 003

Return

4 947

-1 514

3 434

Change in krone value

-1 623

-2 629

-4 252

31 March 2006

83 495

129 174

212 670

Chart 4-1 shows movements in the portfolio's market value since 1998 measured in NOK.

Chart 4-1: Market value of the investment portfolio 1998-2006. In billions of NOK

Return on the portfolio

The return on the investment portfolio in the first quarter of 2006 was 1.62 per cent measured in terms of the benchmark portfolio's currency basket (see Table 4-2). Measured in NOK, the aggregate return in the first quarter was -0.37 per cent. The return measured in NOK was lower because the krone appreciated in relation to the currencies in the benchmark portfolio during the quarter.

Table 4-2: Return on the investment portfolio. Actual and benchmark portfolios in the first quarter of 2006. Per cent

 

Return measured in terms of the benchmark currency basket

Return measured in NOK

 

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Excess return

January

0.96

0.92

1.04

0.99

0.04

February

0.41

0.37

0.90

0.86

0.04

March

0.25

0.25

-2.27

-2.27

0.00

Q1

1.62

1.54

-0.37

-0.45

0.08

The gross actual return in the first quarter was 0.08 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark portfolio. In absolute terms, the excess return for the first quarter of 2006 was NOK 171 million. The main contribution to this excess return came from internal fixed income management, but there was also a positive contribution from external fixed income management.

Transaction costs are being incurred in connection with the increase in the equity portion of the portfolio from 30 to 40 per cent. These transaction costs are being incurred both on the sale of bonds and on the purchase of equities. Norges Bank has estimated the direct and indirect transaction costs associated with phasing in new capital in the first quarter of 2006 at NOK 44.0 million. This is 0.46 per cent of the total amount transferred, i.e. NOK 9.5 billion. The benchmark portfolio has not been adjusted for these transaction costs. This means that the excess return reported is lower than it would have been if the costs associated with phasing in new capital had been excluded.

Since 1 January 1998, the average quarterly return measured in international currency has been 1.41 per cent. Chart 4-2 shows the quarterly returns.

Chart 4-2: Quarterly returns 1998-2006 measured in terms of the portfolio's currency basket. Per cent

Table 4-3 shows the percentage return on the investment portfolio since 1998. The return has been calculated in relation to the portfolio's currency basket. Until the end of 2000, the entire portfolio was invested in government or government guaranteed bonds. Since 2001, however, some of the portfolio has also been invested in equities, and since 2003 some in non-government guaranteed bonds. The table shows that the annual net real return since 1 January 1998 has been 3.91 per cent after deductions for inflation and management costs. The right-hand column shows that the gross excess return in relation to the portfolio's benchmark has averaged 0.21 percentage point per year since 1 January 1998.

Table 4-3: Annual rates of return on the investment portfolio measured in terms of the portfolio's currency basket. Per cent per year

 

Nominal annual return

Annual inflation10

Management costs

Annual net real return

Annual gross excess return

Since 01.01.98

5.81

1.77

0.06

3.91

0.21

Since 01.01.99

5.28

1.88

0.06

3.27

0.24

Since 01.01.00

6.34

1.97

0.07

4.22

0.26

Since 01.01.01

5.94

1.94

0.07

3.85

0.29

Since 01.01.02

6.78

2.09

0.07

4.53

0.33

Since 01.01.03

8.24

2.10

0.06

5.94

0.33

Since 01.01.04

8.22

2.37

0.06

5.65

0.23

Since 01.01.05

8.59

2.34

0.06

6.05

0.34

Chart 4-3 shows the cumulative return from 1 January 1998 for the fixed income and equity portfolios. The cumulative return on fixed income investments for the period as a whole has been 52.2 per cent. Since the first equity investments were made in January 2001, the cumulative return has been 32.2 per cent on the fixed income portfolio and 8.8 per cent on the equity portfolio.

However, this difference in returns does not provide an accurate picture of the profitability of the two asset classes. Substantial amounts have been transferred from bonds to equities since January 2001. The equity portion of the portfolio was close to 40 per cent at the end of the quarter. The market value of its equity holdings at the end of the quarter was 13.0 per cent higher than the average purchase price. Thus equity investments have been more profitable than Chart 4-3 would suggest.

Chart 4-3: Index for cumulative return on the asset classes in the investment portfolio measured in terms of the portfolio's currency basket (31.12.00=100)

The cumulative return since 1 January 1998 has been 59.4 per cent for the actual portfolio and 56.8 per cent for the benchmark portfolio (see Chart 4-4). The difference between the two return figures is the gross excess return achieved through management, a total of 2.6 percentage points since 1998.

In absolute terms, the excess return has been NOK 2.0 billion. The chart also shows that a positive excess return has been achieved in 25 of the 33 quarters since 1 January 1998.

Chart 4-4: Index for cumulative actual return and benchmark return (31.12.97=100, left-hand scale) and quarterly gross excess return in percentage points (right-hand scale) 1998-2006

Fixed income management

The market value of the fixed income portfolio fell by NOK 11.6 billion to NOK 129.2 billion in the first quarter. The decrease was due primarily to NOK 7.5 billion of the fixed income portfolio being switched to equities. A negative return on fixed income investments and a stronger krone contributed NOK 1.5 billion and NOK 2.6 billion respectively to the decrease in value. A change in the krone exchange rate has no effect, however, on the portfolio's international purchasing power.

About 92 per cent of the portfolio is managed internally by Norges Bank using both enhanced indexing, where the main purpose is to achieve the same market exposure as the benchmark, and active strategies designed to outperform the benchmark.

Capital was transferred to two new mandates assigned to external managers in the first quarter of 2006: Barclays Global Investors N.A. was awarded a specialist management mandate in the US, and Putnam Advisory Company LLC was awarded a management mandate for emerging markets.

Equity management

The market value of the equity portfolio increased by NOK 12.8 billion to NOK 83.5 billion during the quarter. A total of NOK 9.5 billion was transferred to the portfolio, and the return on equity investments was NOK 4.9 billion, while a stronger krone reduced the value of the portfolio by NOK 1.6 billion. A change in the krone exchange rate has no effect, however, on the portfolio's international purchasing power.

The entire equity portfolio was managed internally by Norges Bank at the end of the quarter.

Market risk

The Executive Board's guidelines define a limit for the market risk associated with the actual portfolio in relation to the market risk associated with the benchmark portfolio. This relative market risk must always be less than an expected tracking error of 1.5 percentage point.

Chart 4-5 shows that relative market risk has remained well below the upper limit over the last 12 months. Expected tracking error was 0.16 percentage point at the end of the quarter.

Chart 4-5: Expected tracking error at each month-end over the last 12 months. Basis points

Information ratio

The information ratio is a measure of skill in the operational management of the portfolio. It is the ratio of gross excess return for the year to relative market risk (measured here as the actual standard deviation of the gross excess return). Since 1 July 1998, the annual average information ratio has been 0.96.

Table 4-4 provides a historical overview of the information ratio for the portfolio as a whole and for each asset class.

Table 4-4: Information ratios

Period

Portfolio

Equities

Fixed income

Last 12 months

3.42

1.03

3.27

Since 2002

1.88

-0.47

2.92

Since 1999

1.40

n/a

2.03

Guidelines for management

Table 4-5 provides an overview of risk and exposure in the investment portfolio at the end of each quarter over the last year. The management of the portfolio complied with the Executive Board's guidelines at all times during the first quarter.

Table 4-5: Risk and exposure

Risk


Actual



31.03.05

30.06.05

30.09.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Market risk (percentage points)

Tracking error

0.13

0.15

0.22

0.31

0.16

Asset mix (per cent)

Fixed income

69.51

69.16

67.52

66.58

60.74

Equities

30.49

30.84

32.48

33.42

39.26

Currency distribution (per cent)

Europe

53.50

49.14

49.32

48.56

50.00

Americas

37.84

40.53

39.90

39.79

36.58

Asia and Oceania

8.66

10.33

10.78

11.65

13.42

Ownership stake (per cent)

Ownership stake max. 5 per cent

1.03

0.33

0.45

0.97

0.68

Table 4-6 shows the composition of the bond portfolio (fixed income portfolio excluding cash) based on credit ratings from Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S&P). In the table, government bonds and government guaranteed bonds without credit ratings have been assigned the credit rating of the issuing country.

Table 4-6: Bond portfolio on 31 March 2006 by credit rating. Percentage of market value

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Rating

Percentage of total

Rating

Percentage of total

Aaa

56.05

AAA

53.65

Aa

17.25

AA

16.32

A

14.57

A

11.23

Baa

6.38

BBB

6.67

Ba

2.04

BB

2.55

Lower rating

0.31

Lower rating

0.31

No rating

3.40

No rating

9.27

Costs

The costs incurred in NBIM's management activities consist partly of fees to external managers and custodian institutions, and partly of Norges Bank's internal operating costs. In the first quarter of 2006, NBIM's total costs associated with the management of the investment portfolio, including performance-based fees, amounted to NOK 29.8 million, which corresponds to 0.06 per cent (annualised) of the average portfolio.

Buffer portfolio

Transfers to the buffer portfolio and transfers to the Government Pension Fund - Global in the first quarter of 2006

Table 4-7 provides an overview of transfers of capital to the buffer portfolio and the Government Pension Fund - Global in the first quarter of 2006. A total of NOK 46.1 billion was transferred to the portfolio from the State's Direct Financial Interest in petroleum activities (SDFI) during the quarter. A further NOK 16.2 billion was transferred to the portfolio through Norges Bank's purchases of foreign exchange in the market during the quarter.

A total of NOK 82.4 billion was transferred to the Government Pension Fund - Global in the first quarter of 2006.

Table 4-7: Transfers to and from the buffer portfolio in the first quarter of 2006. In millions of NOK

Period

Transferred from SDFI

Foreign exchange purchased in the market

Transferred to Government Pension Fund - Global


Market value at end of period

January

15 821

5 938

31 125


15 262

February

16 170

3 799

31 060


4 176

March

14 124

6 438

20 181


4 322

Q1

46 115

16 175

82 366


-

Size and return

The market value of the buffer portfolio was NOK 4.3 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2006, compared with NOK 24.1 billion at the end of 2005. The return on the buffer portfolio during the quarter was -0.1 per cent measured in NOK. In absolute terms, the return was NOK 256 million.

5. Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

Key figures for the first quarter of 2006

  • Market value NOK 13.8 billion on 31 March
  • Return of -0.71 per cent in international currency
  • Return of -2.38 per cent measured in NOK
  • Excess return 0.00 percentage point
  • Claims paid NOK 29.6 million

The fund's market value

The market value of the fund's international portfolio was NOK 13.8 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2006. In addition, the balance on the working account was NOK 106.2 million. The market values of the Petroleum Insurance Fund's foreign exchange portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2006 are shown in Table 5-1.

Table 5-1: Market value of the Petroleum Insurance Fund at the end of each quarter. In millions of NOK

 

31.03.05

30.06.05

30.09.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

EUR

7 072

7 096

7 036

7 038

6 906

GBP

2 059

2 123

2 098

2 120

2 073

USD

4 526

4 960

4 892

5 039

4 835

Total market value

13 657

14 179

14 026

14 197

13 814

Return on the fund

The return on the fund in the first quarter of 2006 was -0.71 per cent measured in terms of the currency basket corresponding to the composition of the benchmark portfolio (see Table 5-2). Measured in NOK, the return was -2.38 per cent. The difference is due to the appreciation of the krone against the currencies included in the benchmark portfolio during the quarter. The return on the actual portfolio was virtually the same as the return on the benchmark portfolio.

Table 5-2: Return on the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund. Per cent

 

Measured in terms of the benchmark currency basket

Measured in NOK

 

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

Return differential

January

-0.17

-0.16

0.10

0.11

-0.01

February

0.19

0.19

0.42

0.41

0.01

March

-0.73

-0.74

-2.89

-2.90

0.01

Q1

-0.71

-0.72

-2.38

-2.39

0.00

The actual return figures include normal transaction costs associated with indexing the portfolio. These costs are not included when calculating the benchmark return. Norges Bank estimates that these costs amount to about 0.02 per cent of the portfolio's value per year. On the other hand, the actual return figures include income from lending fixed income instruments, while the benchmark return does not. Norges Bank and some of the external custodian institutions conduct lending operations.

Management of the fund

The entire portfolio is managed internally by Norges Bank and has always been kept very close to the benchmark. The portfolio is invested primarily in government bonds and other bonds included in the Lehman Global Aggregate index's "Government-related" sub-sector. In addition, the portfolio may be invested in German bonds issued against collateral in the form of loans to the public sector (öffentliche Pfandbriefe), in short-term money market instruments, and in unlisted fixed income derivatives.

Claims payments of NOK 29.6 million were made during the quarter. The balance on the working account was NOK 106 million at the end of the quarter.

Market risk

The guidelines from the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy establish a limit for market risk associated with the actual portfolio in relation to market risk associated with the benchmark portfolio. This relative market risk must always be less than a tracking error of 0.75 percentage point. Relative market risk remained well below this upper limit throughout the first quarter of 2006 (see Chart 5-1).

Chart 5-1: Expected tracking error over the last 12 months. Basis points

The guidelines from the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy require an average modified duration in each currency of four in the benchmark portfolio and no higher than five in the actual portfolio as a whole. Table 5-3 shows that the duration in each of the currencies in which the fund was invested satisfied this requirement by a good margin in the first quarter.

Table 5-3: The portfolio's modified duration by currency on 31 March 2006

Currency

Actual portfolio

Benchmark portfolio

EUR

3.79

3.93

GBP

3.92

4.03

USD

4.12

4.04

Total

3.92

3.98

Guidelines for management

Table 5-4 provides an overview of the limits for risk exposure set out in the

regulation and guidelines, and shows the portfolio's actual exposure in relation to these limits at the end of the quarter. There were no breaches of the guidelines during the first quarter of 2006.

Table 5-4: Risk exposure limits stipulated in the regulation and guidelines

Risk

Limits

Actual



31.03.05

30.06.05

30.09.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Market risk

Maximum tracking error 0.75 percentage point

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.04

Interest rate risk

Modified duration max. 5

3.86

3.87

3.91

3.93

3.92

Table 5-5 shows the composition of the bond portfolio based on credit ratings from Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S&P). In the table, the agencies' detailed subdivisions have been grouped together - for example, Moody's Aa includes the sub-ratings Aa1, Aa2 and Aa3. Government bonds and government guaranteed bonds without credit ratings have been assigned the credit rating of the issuing country.

Table 5-5: The bond portfolio on 31 March 2006 by credit rating

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Rating

Percentage of total market value

Rating

Percentage of total market value

Aaa

72.63

AAA

64.73

Aa

24.98

AA

31.63

A

2.39

A

2.40

No rating11

0

No rating

1.24

Costs

The management agreement between the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy and Norges Bank establishes the principles for Norges Bank's remuneration for managing the Petroleum Insurance Fund's portfolio. For 2006, a remuneration rate of 0.06 per cent of the average market value of the portfolio has been agreed. Remuneration of NOK 2.1 million was accrued during the first quarter of 2006.

Appendices:

Appendix 1: Accounting reports

1.1 Government Pension Fund - Global

Table 1 shows the distribution of different instruments as presented in Norges Bank's accounts at the end of the last five quarters. Off-balance sheet items are shown in a separate table. Table 2 shows the book return, which was NOK 2 503 million in the first quarter prior to the deduction of Norges Bank's management remuneration.

Table 1: The Pension Fund's international portfolio on 31 March 2006 by instrument. In millions of NOK


31.03.2005

31.12.2005

31.03.2006

Short-term assets/debt, incl. deposits in foreign banks

16 610

23 784

-3 436

Money market investments in foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

428 782

558 979

556 186

Borrowing from foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

-414 346

-438 717

-456 642

Foreign fixed income securities

637 100

682 024

785 047

Foreign equities

427 486

576 683

603 624

Adjustment of forward contracts and derivatives

-5 441

-3 618

-775

Total portfolio before management remuneration12

1 090 191

1 399 135

1 484 004

Management remuneration due

-278

-1 239

-386

Total portfolio

1 089 913

1 397 896

1 483 619

Off-balance sheet items (in millions of NOK)

31.03.2005

31.12.2005

31.03.2006

Liabilities




Derivatives and forward contracts sold

596 179

798 223

933 480

Derivatives and forward contracts purchased

578 269

785 681

892 746

Rights




Options sold

2 726

5 273

7 657

Options purchased

15 685

8 578

36 675

There is a slight difference in the market value used in the return calculations (cf. Table 4-1) and the accounts on 31 March 2006. This is due partly to accounting provisions and different valuation methods for money market investments.

In Table 2, income and expenses in foreign currency have been translated into NOK at the exchange rate on the transaction date, and recognised as they have been earned or incurred according to the accruals principle.

Table 2: Book return on the Pension Fund's international portfolioto 31 March 2006. In millions of NOK

31.03.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Interest income

6 746

27 815

8 010

Dividends

2 154

10 309

3 024

Exchange rate adjustments

16 057

33 610

-27 447

Unrealised gains/losses on securities

-10 332

36 521

-8 444

Realised gains/losses on securities

12 786

49 908

23 224

Brokers' commissions

-9

-19

-17

Gains/losses on futures

49

1 250

369

Gains/losses on options

-3

0

56

Gains/losses on equity swaps

14

1 239

758

Gains/losses on interest rate swaps

500

1 756

2 970

Book return on investments

27 964

162 388

2 503

Accrued management remuneration

-278

-1 239

-386

Net return

27 685

161 149

2 118

1.2 The investment portfolio

Table 1: The investment portfolio on 31 March 2006 by instrument. In millions of NOK


31.03.2005

31.12.2005

31.03.2006

Short-term assets/debt, incl. deposits in foreign banks

-578

-9 159

-4 353

Money market investments in foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

43 447

66 211

69 274

Borrowing from foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

-64 898

-61 002

-67 157

Foreign fixed income securities

154 954

146 676

134 460

Foreign equities

58 001

70 615

84 461

Adjustment of forward contracts and derivatives

-914

-377

175

Total portfolio

190 012

212 962

13216 860

Off-balance sheet items

31.03.2005

31.12.2005

31.03.2006

Liabilities

 

 

 

Derivatives and forward contracts sold

96 294

137 043

179 303

Derivatives and forward contracts purchased

87 008

136 662

157 815

Rights

 

 

 

Options sold

487

759

4 973

Options purchased

3 234

1 448

7 901

Table 2: Book return on the investment portfolio to 31 March 2006. In millions of NOK

Return on the investment portfolio

31.03.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Interest income

1 441

5 067

1 431

Dividends

325

1 467

424

Exchange rate adjustments

3 110

5 570

-3 970

Unrealised gains/losses on securities

-1 401

5 318

-1 186

Realised gains/losses on securities

1 516

5 390

1 762

Brokers' commissions

-2

-3

-1

Gains/losses on futures

-113

-145

91

Gains/losses on options

-1

-3

8

Gains/losses on equity swaps

-4

-13

8

Gains/losses on interest rate swaps

-46

440

619

Other operating expenses

-16

-44

-14

Net return

4 807

23 046

-828

1.3 Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

Table 1: The Petroleum Insurance Fund's international portfolio by instrument on 31 March 2006. In thousands of NOK


31.03.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Short-term assets/debt, incl. deposits in foreign banks

24 092

32 040

-292 689

Money market investments in foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

2 708 815

2 854 221

2 888 074

Borrowing from foreign financial institutions against collateral in the form of securities

0

0

0

Foreign fixed income securities

10 985 416

11 312 548

11 265 328

Adjustment of forward contracts and derivatives

-960

-983

-1 215

Total portfolio before management remuneration

13 717 363

14 197 825

13 859 498

Management remuneration due

-2 022

-8 222

-2 141

Total portfolio

13 715 342

14 189 603

13 857 357

Off-balance sheet items (in thousands of NOK)

31.03.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Derivatives and forward contracts sold

1 148 140

1 149 753

804 257

Derivatives and forward contracts purchased

1 180 008

1 148 770

803 043

Table 2: Book return on the Petroleum Insurance Fund to 31 March 2006. In thousands of NOK


31.03.05

31.12.05

31.03.06

Interest income

137 528

559 657

150 514

Exchange rate adjustments

215 210

325 078

-238 604

Unrealised gains/losses on securities

-71 072

-18 437

-247 371

Realised gains/losses on securities

17 194

16 017

-2 778

Other operating expenses

-1

-6

5

Net return

298 858

882 309

-338 235

Accrued management remuneration

-2 022

-8 222

-2 141

Net return

296 836

874 087

-340 376

Appendix 2: Mandate and benchmark portfolio

1. Government Pension Fund - Global

The Government Pension Fund was established by the Norwegian Parliament by the Act of 20 December 2005. The fund has two parts: the Government Pension Fund - Global (previously the Government Petroleum Fund, established in 1990) and the Government Pension Fund - Norway (previously the National Insurance Fund, established in 1967).

The Government Pension Fund - Global is a continuation of the Government Petroleum Fund. At the same time as the Government Pension Fund was established on 1 January 2006, the Ministry of Finance changed the guidelines for the management of the fund. The most important changes were that the maximum ownership stake in limited companies was raised to five per cent (previously three per cent), the requirement of a minimum credit rating for corporate bonds was dropped (previously a minimum of BBB investment grade), and investments may now be made in commodities contracts and units in funds.

The Ministry of Finance has adopted ethical guidelines for the fund's investments. These guidelines require that ethical issues be addressed through three mechanisms: corporate governance to promote long-term financial returns, negative screening and exclusion of companies to avoid complicity in unacceptable violations of fundamental ethical norms. Norges Bank is responsible for corporate governance in accordance with the guidelines from the Ministry of Finance. Norges Bank's Executive Board has approved principles of corporate governance. The government has appointed a Council on Ethics which is to advise the Ministry of Finance on negative screening and company exclusions. The Ministry makes the final decision on the exclusion of companies and instructs Norges Bank accordingly. No companies were excluded from the fund during the first quarter of 2006.

The Ministry of Finance has delegated the operational management of the Government Pension Fund - Global to Norges Bank. The management mandate is stipulated in a regulation and written guidelines issued by the Ministry. A management agreement, which further regulates the relationship between the Ministry of Finance as delegating authority and Norges Bank as operational manager, has also been drawn up. The guidelines and management agreement are available on Norges Bank's website.

According to the regulation, Norges Bank is to seek to achieve the highest possible return within the limits set out in the regulation. The Bank's strategy for achieving an excess return has been presented previously in its annual reports. The Ministry of Finance is updated about the operational management of the fund through quarterly and annual reports which are also published.

The Ministry of Finance has specified countries and currencies that are to be included in the fund's benchmark portfolio. The benchmark portfolio consists of specific equities and fixed income instruments and reflects the delegating authority's investment strategy for the Pension Fund. The benchmark portfolio provides the basis for managing risk in the operational management of the fund and for evaluating Norges Bank's management performance.

Benchmark portfolio on 31 March 2006. Per cent


Equities

Fixed income

Country for equity benchmark

Currency for fixed income benchmark

Strategic benchmark portfolio

Actual benchmark portfolio

Strategic benchmark portfolio

Actual benchmark portfolio

Asset class weights

40.0

40.9

60.0

59.1

Belgium

 

0.8

 

 

Finland

 

1.0

 

 

France

 

8.0

 

 

Greece

 

0.5

 

 

Ireland

 

0.6

 

 

Italy

 

3.3

 

 

Netherlands

 

2.8

 

 

Portugal

 

0.3

 

 

Spain

 

3.1

 

 

Germany

 

5.7

 

 

Austria

 

0.3

 

 

Euro area (EUR)

 

26.2

 

44.5

UK (GBP)

 

17.1

 

8.5

Denmark (DKK)

 

0.5

 

0.6

Switzerland (CHF)

 

4.9

 

0.5

Sweden (SEK)

 

1.0

 

1.0

Total Europe

50.0

50.7

55.0

55.2

US (USD)

 

33.3

 

32.9

Brazil

 

0.7

 

 

Canada (CAD)

 

2.1

 

2.0

Mexico

 

0.4

 

 

South Africa


0.7



Total Americas, Middle East and Africa



35.0

34.8

Australia (AUD)

 

1.6

 

0.4

Hong Kong

 

0.9

 

 

Japan (JPY)

 

7.4

 

9.1

New Zealand (NZD)

 

0.0

 

0.1

Singapore (SGD)

 

0.3

 

0.4

South Korea

 

1.1

 

 

Taiwan

 

0.8

 

 

Total Asia and Oceania



10.0

10.0

Total Americas, Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania

50.0

49.3



The strategic benchmark portfolio for the Pension Fund is composed of FTSE equity indices for large and medium-sized companies in 27 countries, and of Lehman Global Aggregate and Lehman Global Real fixed income indices in the currencies of 21 countries. Equities account for 40 per cent of the fund's strategic benchmark portfolio, while fixed income instruments account for 60 per cent. The equity portion of the benchmark consists of equities listed on European exchanges (50 per cent) and equities listed on stock exchanges in the Americas, Asia, Oceania and Africa (50 per cent). The regional distribution in the fixed income benchmark is 55 per cent in Europe, 35 per cent in the Americas, and 10 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

Asset classes and regional weights change continuously as a result of changes in market prices for the securities in the benchmark portfolio. The monthly transfers of capital to the Pension Fund are to be used to bring the asset classes and regional weights back as close to the original weights as possible, providing that this does not necessitate selling anything from the existing portfolio. Thus, even after the transfer of new capital, the actual benchmark may differ somewhat from the strategic benchmark portfolio described above. The actual benchmark provides the basis for managing risk and measuring the performance of the Pension Fund.

A substantial difference between the actual benchmark and the strategic benchmark over time will trigger full rebalancing. This kind of rebalancing did not occur in the first quarter of 2006.

The table above shows the weights in the actual benchmark on 31 March 2006. The weights in the fixed income benchmark apply to the currency in which the securities are issued. Therefore, the weight for each country in the euro area is not listed.

2. Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves - investment portfolio

The foreign exchange reserves are to be available for interventions in the foreign exchange market in connection with the implementation of monetary policy or to promote financial stability. The reserves are divided into a money market portfolio and an investment portfolio. In addition, a buffer portfolio is used for the regular foreign exchange purchases for the Government Pension Fund - Global. Within Norges Bank, the investment portfolio and buffer portfolio are managed by NBIM, while the money market portfolio is managed by Norges Bank Monetary Policy (PPO).

Norges Bank's Executive Board lays down guidelines for the management of the foreign exchange reserves and has delegated responsibility to the Governor for issuing supplementary rules. NBIM manages the investment portfolio in accordance with guidelines laid down by the Executive Board and the Governor of Norges Bank. The Executive Board's guidelines are available on Norges Bank's website. In November 2005, the Executive Board decided to increase the equity portion of the investment portfolio from 30 to 40 per cent. The phasing in of this higher proportion of equities was ongoing during the first quarter and was completed on 30 April 2006. With effect from 1 January 2006, the Executive Board decided that the maximum ownership stake in any one company be raised from three to five per cent.

If combined holdings in the foreign exchange reserves and the Government Pension Fund - Global exceed five per cent, a special report must be submitted to the Executive Board. The Executive Board has laid down joint guidelines for corporate governance in the two funds, and has also ruled that companies which the Ministry of Finance has decided to exclude from the Pension Fund should also be excluded from the foreign exchange reserves. No companies were excluded during the first quarter of 2006.

The strategic benchmark portfolio for the Pension Fund is composed of FTSE equity indices for large and medium-sized companies in 27 countries and of Lehman Global Aggregate fixed income indices in the currencies of 18 countries. Equities account for 40 per cent of the fund's strategic benchmark portfolio, while fixed income instruments account for 60 per cent.

Benchmark portfolio on 31 March 2006. Per cent


Equities

Fixed income

Country for equity benchmark

Currency for fixed income benchmark

Strategic benchmark portfolio

Actual benchmark portfolio

Strategic benchmark portfolio

Actual benchmark portfolio

Asset class weights

40.0

39.3

60.0

60.7

Belgium

 

0.8

 

 

Finland

 

1.0

 

 

France

 

7.9

 

 

Greece

 

0.5

 

 

Ireland

 

0.6

 

 

Italy

 

3.3

 

 

Netherlands

 

2.7

 

 

Portugal

 

0.3

 

 

Spain

 

3.1

 

 

Germany

 

5.6

 

 

Austria

 

0.3

 

 

Euro area (EUR)

 

26.0

 

45.7

UK (GBP)

 

17.0

 

8.5

Denmark (DKK)

 

0.5

 

0.7

Switzerland (CHF)

 

4.9

 

0.6

Sweden (SEK)

 

1.9

 

1.0

Total Europe

50.0

50.3

58.0

56.5

US (USD)

 

31.5

 

35.5

Brazil

 

0.7

 

 

Canada (CAD)

 

2.0

 

2.3

Mexico

 

0.4

 

 

South Africa


0.7



Total Americas, Middle East and Africa

35.0

35.2

37.0

37.8

Australia (AUD)

 

1.9

 

0.3

Hong Kong

 

1.0

 

 

Japan (JPY)

 

8.9

 

5.3

New Zealand (NZD)

 

0.1

 


Singapore (SGD)

 

0.3

 


South Korea

 

1.3

 

 

Taiwan

 

0.9

 

 

Total Asia and Oceania

15.0

14.5

5.0

5.6

The equity portion of the benchmark consists of equities listed on stock exchanges in Europe (50 per cent), the Americas and Africa (35 per cent), and Asia and Oceania (15 per cent). The regional distribution in the fixed income benchmark is 58 per cent in Europe, 37 per cent in the Americas, and 5 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

The table above shows the weights in the actual benchmark on 31 March 2006. The weights in the fixed income benchmark apply to the currency in which the securities are issued. Therefore, the weight for each country in the euro area is not listed.

3. Government Petroleum Insurance Fund

Under the Act relating to the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund, Norges Bank is responsible for the operational management of the fund. The management mandate is stipulated in a regulation and written guidelines issued by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. A management agreement, which further regulates the relationship between the Ministry as delegating authority and Norges Bank as operational manager, has also been drawn up. The guidelines and management agreement are available on Norges Bank's website.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has established a strategic benchmark portfolio for the fund. The currency distribution of the benchmark portfolio is 50 per cent EUR, 15 per cent GBP and 35 per cent USD. The benchmark index consists of the Lehman Global Aggregate Treasury indices for the three currencies as well as a money market deposit to weight the interest rate risk, measured by modified duration, in each currency to four. During the year, the currency weights fluctuate with market developments. However, at the beginning of July each year, the weights are readjusted to the strategic currency weights.

The table below shows the currency weights in the fund's strategic and actual benchmark on 31 March 2006.

Benchmark portfolio on 31 March 2006. Per cent

Currency

Strategic benchmark portfolio

Actual benchmark portfolio

EUR

50.0

50.0

GBP

15.0

15.0

USD

35.0

35.0

Total

100.0

100.0

4. Companies excluded from the investment universe

In accordance with the ethical guidelines for the Government Pension Fund - Global, the Ministry of Finance has decided to exclude a total of 17 companies from the fund's investment universe. The decisions were based on recommendations from the Council on Ethics. The background for the exclusions is discussed in greater detail in press releases from the Ministry of Finance. The Council's recommendations are available at http://odin.dep.no/etikkradet/english/bn.html. The table below provides an overview of the companies that have been excluded from the fund. The same companies have also been excluded from the investment universe for Norges Bank's foreign exchange reserves.

Companies excluded from the investment universe by the Ministry of Finance

Date

Reason

Company

26 April 2002

Production of anti-personnel landmines

Singapore Technologies, Singapore

31 May 2005

Exploration of petroleum resources offshore Western Sahara

Kerr-McGee Corporation, US

31 August 2005

Manufacture of key components for cluster bombs

Alliant Techsystems Inc., US

EADS Company N.V., Netherlands

EADS Finance B.V., Netherlands

General Dynamics Corporation, US

L-3 Communications Holdings Inc., US

Lockheed Martin Corporation, US

Raytheon Company, US

Thales SA, France

31 December 2005

Involved in the production of nuclear weapons

BAE Systems Plc, UK

Boeing Company, US

Finmeccanica SpA, Italy

Honeywell International Inc., US

Northrop Grumman Corp., US

Safran SA, France

United Technologies Corp., US

Appendix 3: Methodology for the calculation of transaction costs

The return calculations are based on internationally recognised standards.

All financial instruments are valued at market prices, and the index suppliers' prices are generally used for securities in the benchmark indices.14 Bloomberg's prices are used for equities and fixed income securities that are not in the benchmark index. In addition, prices from Reech are used for some fixed income derivatives, and prices from some equity markets are taken directly from the local stock exchanges.

Interest expenses and income, dividends and withholding tax are accounted for on an accruals basis when calculating returns. Income and expenses relating to transactions not yet settled are recognised on the trade date.

Transfers to the fund and between the equity and fixed income portfolios are made on the last business day of each month. The return for each month can then be calculated by looking at monthly changes in market value adjusted for incoming and outgoing payments. The geometrical return is used for longer periods, such as quarterly, annual and year-to-date returns. This means that the return indices for each sub-period are multiplied. This return is thus a time-weighted return on the returns for the individual months.

The return is calculated in both NOK and local currency. The NOK return is calculated on the basis of market values in local currency translated into NOK using WM/Reuters exchange rates.15

The return in local currency is obtained by calculating the geometrical difference between the fund's return in NOK and the return on the currency basket. The currency basket corresponds to the currency weights in the benchmark portfolio, and the return indicates how much the krone has appreciated/depreciated against the currencies in the benchmark portfolio.

The excess return emerges as an arithmetical difference between the returns on the actual portfolio and the benchmark portfolio.

Returns are calculated in a separate system and then reconciled with the accounting system. Differences between market values calculated in the models and market values in the accounts are primarily due to different valuation principles for money market investments. Provisions are also made in the accounts to cover remuneration to Norges Bank as well as accrued income from securities lending.

Appendix 4: Definition of expected tracking error

The Ministry of Finance has set the limit for relative market risk in the management of the Pension Fund on the basis of expected tracking error. This measure is defined as the expected value of the standard deviation of the difference between the annual return on the actual portfolio and the return on the benchmark portfolio. When deviations from the benchmark are controlled by means of an upper limit for expected tracking error, it is highly probable that the actual return will lie within a band around the return on the benchmark. The lower the limit for tracking error, the narrower the band will be. Given an expected tracking error of 1.5 percentage points, or 150 basis points, the actual return on the portfolio will probably deviate from the benchmark return by less than 1.5 percentage points in two out of three years.

Appendix 5: Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)

NBIM is a separate business area at Norges Bank. The Executive Director of NBIM reports to the Governor of Norges Bank. The Executive Board has overriding responsibility for Norges Bank's operations (cf. organisation chart). The Supervisory Council is the Bank's overseeing body and adopts the Bank's budget. Norges Bank's Audit Department reports to the Supervisory Council and is responsible for operational auditing of investment management operations. The Office of the Auditor General is responsible for the final audit of the Government Pension Fund - Global and the Government Petroleum Insurance Fund, and bases its work partly on material from the Audit Department.

The Executive Board establishes the framework for NBIM's operations through its decisions concerning NBIM's strategy plans. Strategiplanen er treårig, og revideres hvert annet år.The strategy plan covers a three-year period and is revised every other year. The main objectives for the period 2005-2007 are to achieve an annual excess return of at least 0.25 percentage point by means of active management and to ensure a high level of confidence among clients and the general public. Underlying these objectives is an acknowledgement that Norges Bank manages substantial assets on behalf of Norwegian society.

NBIM has separate business lines for equity and fixed income management. The heads of Equities and Fixed Income are responsible for all portfolio investments and performance, strategic planning and cost management within their respective asset class. Each business line has a Chief Operating Officer who is responsible for support functions, transactions and IT systems. The Chief Operating Officers report both to their respective business line manager and to the Executive Director of NBIM. In addition, three departments which are organisationally independent of the two business lines report directly to NBIM's Executive Director. These departments are responsible for risk measurement, performance measurement, accounting, compliance with investment guidelines, negotiation of legal agreements, personnel policy, IT policy and administrative shared services. At the end of March 2006, NBIM had 130 permanent employees.


1 The value of the buffer portfolio, which amounted to about NOK 4 billion on 31 March 2006, is included in the total.

2 When calculating the returns on the actual and benchmark portfolios, monthly returns are used which are linked together using geometrical methods. The figures are percentages and have been annualised. The excess return is calculated using arithmetical methods.

3 The standard deviation is a measure of variations in the return/excess return during a period. Each monthly return/excess return is compared with the mean for the period. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variations relative to the mean, and the higher the risk.

4 Tracking error is explained in Appendix 4.

5 The IR is a measure of risk-adjusted return, and is used to measure the degree of skill in investment management. It is calculated as the ratio between excess return and the actual relative market risk to which the portfolio has been exposed. The IR reveals the level of excess return generated for each unit of risk.

6 Corporate securities with a credit rating of AAA from Standard & Poor's.

7 The composition of the Pension Fund's benchmark portfolio differs from the FTSE All-World Index, and therefore the return on it will also be different.

8 Inflation is calculated as a weighted average of the increase in the consumer price index in the countries included in the benchmark portfolio.

9 There is no absolutely correct method of calculating the distribution of active risk. The distribution in the chart is based on summation of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for internal and external mandates, disregarding the correlation between the different mandates.

10 Weighted average of consumer price inflation in the countries included in the benchmark portfolio in the years in question.

11 If a security has no rating from Moody's, it will have an approved rating from one of the other agencies (S&P or Fitch). The same is the case for S&P.

12 The exchange rate adjustments in the accounts in the table above have been calculated on the basis of the fund's actual composition. Income and expenses are translated at the exchange rate on the transaction date, and assets and liabilities are translated at the market rate at the end of the month. This figure will differ from the estimated exchange rate effect in the measurement of returns. When measuring returns, the exchange rate effect is calculated on the basis of the benchmark's currency composition at the beginning of each month and associated exchange rate movements.

13 There is a difference in the market value used in the return calculations (cf. Table 4-1) and the accounts on 31 March 2006. This is due primarily to a transfer between the investment portfolio and the buffer portfolio which had yet to be settled.

14 Lehman Global Aggregate (LGA) and FTSE for fixed income and equity instruments respectively.

15 WM/Reuters Closing Spot Rates, fixed at 4 p.m. London time.

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