Working Paper

Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles

Author: Knut Are Aastveit, Anne Sofie Jore and Francesco Ravazzolo
Series: Working Paper
Number: 9/2015

Working Paper 9/2015 (PDF 730.9 Kb)

Abstract:

We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defi ning reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a receiver operating characteristic curve methodology and a comparison of business cycle turning points with Norway's main trading partners, we find that a Markov-switching factor model provides the most reasonable defi nition of Norwegian business cycles for the sample 1978Q1-2011Q4. In a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise, focusing on the last recession, we show that univariate Markov-switching models applied to surveys and a fi nancial conditions index are timely and accurate in calling the last peak in real time. The models are less accurate and timely in calling the trough in real time.

Published 11 May 2015 10:20