Models for monetary policy analysis and forecasting

The forecasting and monetary policy analysis system

A number of analytical tools are used in forecasting and monetary policy analysis.

The system in more detail

Models for monetary policy analysis (NEMO)

NEMO (”Norwegian Economy MOdel”) was developed by Norges Bank and is a macro model for forecasting and monetary policy analysis. The model is based on international research and model development over the past 20 years and has many features in common with similar models in other central banks.

More about NEMO

Models for short-term forecasting (SAM)

Norges Bank’s short-term forecasts are based on a number of statistical and econometric models and judgment.  A broad information set about the economic situation is part of the analysis. No single model can provide a complete description of reality.  Different models have different properties. Theory and experience show that a weighted average of different model-based forecasts is often more accurate than forecasts provided by individual models. Norges Bank has therefore developed a system, SAM (System for Averaging Models), for averaging forecasts for inflation and mainland GDP provided by different models.

More about SAM and updated figures

Other models for forecasting and analysis

A number of smaller models are also used to a varying extent for forecasting and analysis. These models are partly used as cross-checks of forecasts provided by other models and partly for analysing specific conditions.

More about other models

Published 11 August 2010 14:05